Related papers: Nonparametric Estimation and On-Line Prediction fo…
Estimating the Shannon entropy of a discrete distribution from which we have only observed a small sample is challenging. Estimating other information-theoretic metrics, such as the Kullback-Leibler divergence between two sparsely sampled…
The non-stationary evolution of observable quantities in complex systems can frequently be described as a juxtaposition of quasi-stationary spells. Given that standard theoretical and data analysis approaches usually rely on the assumption…
The entropy of an ergodic finite-alphabet process can be computed from a single typical sample path x_1^n using the entropy of the k-block empirical probability and letting k grow with $n$ roughly like log n. We further assume that the…
Penalized estimation methods for diffusion processes and dependent data have recently gained significant attention due to their effectiveness in handling high-dimensional stochastic systems. In this work, we introduce an adaptive…
In this paper, we propose a variable selection method for general nonparametric kernel-based estimation. The proposed method consists of two-stage estimation: (1) construct a consistent estimator of the target function, (2) approximate the…
In a wide range of applications, the stochastic properties of the observed time series change over time. The changes often occur gradually rather than abruptly: the properties are (approximately) constant for some time and then slowly start…
We present a method of parameter estimation for large class of nonlinear systems, namely those in which the state consists of output derivatives and the flow is linear in the parameter. The method, which solves for the unknown parameter by…
We study parametric estimation of ergodic diffusions observed at high frequency. Different from the previous studies, we suppose that sampling stepsize is unknown, thereby making the conventional Gaussian quasi-likelihood not directly…
In this contribution, we propose a generic online (also sometimes called adaptive or recursive) version of the Expectation-Maximisation (EM) algorithm applicable to latent variable models of independent observations. Compared to the…
We study the problem of estimating a distribution over a finite alphabet from an i.i.d. sample, with accuracy measured in relative entropy (Kullback-Leibler divergence). While optimal bounds on the expected risk are known, high-probability…
We observe a length-$n$ sample generated by an unknown,stationary ergodic Markov process (\emph{model}) over a finite alphabet $\mathcal{A}$. Given any string $\bf{w}$ of symbols from $\mathcal{A}$ we want estimates of the conditional…
Wide conditions are provided to guarantee asymptotic unbiasedness and L^2-consistency of the introduced estimates of the Kullback-Leibler divergence for probability measures in R^d having densities w.r.t. the Lebesgue measure. These…
In this work, a fully nonparametric geostatistical approach to estimate threshold exceeding probabilities is proposed. To estimate the large-scale variability (spatial trend) of the process, the nonparametric local linear regression…
This article introduces a new instrumental variable approach for estimating unknown population parameters with data having nonrandom missing values. With coarse and discrete instruments, Shao and Wang (2016) proposed a semiparametric method…
We study the asymptotic properties of the trajectories of a discrete-time random dynamical system in an infinite-dimensional Hilbert space. Under some natural assumptions on the model, we establish a multiplica-tive ergodic theorem with an…
We present a theoretically well-founded deep learning algorithm for nonparametric regression. It uses over-parametrized deep neural networks with logistic activation function, which are fitted to the given data via gradient descent. We…
In this paper we address the challenging problem of designing globally convergent estimators for the parameters of nonlinear systems containing a non-separable exponential nonlinearity. This class of terms appears in many practical…
In this paper, we introduce a nonparametric end-to-end method for probabilistic forecasting of distributed renewable generation outputs while including missing data imputation. Firstly, we employ a nonparametric probabilistic forecast model…
Traditional linear methods for forecasting multivariate time series are not able to satisfactorily model the non-linear dependencies that may exist in non-Gaussian series. We build on the theory of learning vector-valued functions in the…
The problem of continuous machine learning is studied. Within the framework of the game-theoretic approach, when for calculating the next forecast, no assumptions about the stochastic nature of the source that generates the data flow are…