Related papers: Nonparametric Estimation and On-Line Prediction fo…
Given a heterogeneous time-series sample, the objective is to find points in time (called change points) where the probability distribution generating the data has changed. The data are assumed to have been generated by arbitrary unknown…
This paper is concerned with non-parametric estimation of the entropy in ranked set sampling. Theoretical properties of the proposed estimator are studied. The proposed estimator is compared with the rival estimator in simple random…
We discuss the finite sample theoretical properties of online predictions in non-stationary time series under model misspecification. To analyze the theoretical predictive properties of statistical methods under this setting, we first…
We address the problem of nonparametric estimation of characteristics for stationary and ergodic time series. We consider finite-alphabet time series and real-valued ones and the following four problems: i) estimation of the (limiting)…
We propose a novel nonparametric online predictor for discrete labels conditioned on multivariate continuous features. The predictor is based on a feature space discretization induced by a full-fledged k-d tree with randomly picked…
We observe n possibly dependent random variables, the distribution of which is presumed to be stationary even though this might not be true, and we aim at estimating the stationary distribution. We establish a non-asymptotic deviation bound…
The setting is a stationary, ergodic time series. The challenge is to construct a sequence of functions, each based on only finite segments of the past, which together provide a strongly consistent estimator for the conditional probability…
Suppose we observe a geometrically ergodic semi-Markov process and have a parametric model for the transition distribution of the embedded Markov chain, for the conditional distribution of the inter-arrival times, or for both. The first two…
In this work a method for statistical analysis of time series is proposed, which is used to obtain solutions to some classical problems of mathematical statistics under the only assumption that the process generating the data is stationary…
The forecasting problem for a stationary and ergodic binary time series $\{X_n\}_{n=0}^{\infty}$ is to estimate the probability that $X_{n+1}=1$ based on the observations $X_i$, $0\le i\le n$ without prior knowledge of the distribution of…
Assuming that a threshold Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is observed at discrete time instants, we propose generalized moment estimators to estimate the parameters. Our theoretical basis is the celebrated ergodic theorem. To use this theorem we…
Suppose that we have a method which estimates the conditional probabilities of some unknown stochastic source and we use it to guess which of the outcomes will happen. We want to make a correct guess as often as it is possible. What…
Nonparametric identification and maximum likelihood estimation for finite-state hidden Markov models are investigated. We obtain identification of the parameters as well as the order of the Markov chain if the transition probability…
We propose a general algorithm for approximating nonstandard Bayesian posterior distributions. The algorithm minimizes the Kullback-Leibler divergence of an approximating distribution to the intractable posterior distribution. Our method…
Let $\{(X_i,Y_i)\}$ be a stationary ergodic time series with $(X,Y)$ values in the product space $\R^d\bigotimes \R .$ This study offers what is believed to be the first strongly consistent (with respect to pointwise, least-squares, and…
We describe and experimentally investigate a method to construct forecasting algorithms for stationary and ergodic processes based on universal measures (or so-called universal data compressors). Using some geophysical and economical time…
The goal of nonparametric regression is to recover an underlying regression function from noisy observations, under the assumption that the regression function belongs to a pre-specified infinite dimensional function space. In the online…
A new negative result for nonparametric estimation of binary ergodic processes is shown. I The problem of estimation of distribution with any degree of accuracy is studied. Then it is shown that for any countable class of estimators there…
Assuming that a reflected Ornstein-Uhlenbeck state process is observed at discrete time instants, we propose generalized moment estimators to estimate all drift and diffusion parameters via the celebrated ergodic theorem. With the sampling…
Let $\{X_n\}$ be a stationary and ergodic time series taking values from a finite or countably infinite set ${\cal X}$. Assume that the distribution of the process is otherwise unknown. We propose a sequence of stopping times $\lambda_n$…