Related papers: A Universal Hurricane Frequency Function
One way to predict hurricane numbers would be to predict sea surface temperature, and then predict hurricane numbers as a function of the predicted sea surface temperature. For certain parametric models for sea surface temperature and the…
Bayesian statistical models were developed for the number of tropical cyclones and the rate at which these cyclones became hurricanes in the North Atlantic, North and South Indian, and East and West Pacific Oceans. We find that there is…
There is a clear positive correlation between boreal summer tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature and annual hurricane numbers. This motivates the idea of trying to predict the sea-surface temperature in order to be able to predict…
We are building a hurricane number prediction scheme based on first predicting main development region sea surface temperature (SST), then predicting the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin given the SST prediction, and finally…
One possible method for the year-ahead prediction of hurricane numbers would be to make a year-ahead prediction of sea surface temperature (SST), and then to apply relationships that link SST to hurricane numbers. As a first step towards…
Bayesian statistical models were developed for the number of tropical cyclones and the rate at which these cyclones became hurricanes in the North Atlantic. We find that, controlling for the cold tongue index and the North Atlantic…
We are building a hurricane number prediction scheme that relies, in part, on statistical modelling of the empirical relationship between Atlantic sea surface temperatures and landfalling hurricane numbers. We test out a number of simple…
A simple study of the relationship between the QBO and the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic, both in the Basin and hitting the U.S. coastline, demonstrates that the QBO is not a particularly useful index to help predict hurricane…
We present a statistical model for the unconditional mean tracks of hurricanes. Our model is a semi-parametric scheme that averages together observed hurricane displacements. It has a single parameter that defines the averaging length…
In this paper, we study the problem of forecasting the next year's number of Atlantic hurricanes, which is relevant in many fields of applications such as land-use planning, hazard mitigation, reinsurance and long-term weather derivative…
We compare two methods for making predictions of the climatological distribution of the number of hurricanes making landfall along short sections of the North American coastline. The first method uses local data, and the second method uses…
This second paper of the series (see the first one in [1]) models the dynamics and structure of upper hurricane layer in adiabatic approximation. Formulation of simplified aerodynamic model allows analytically express the radial…
Recent US major landfalling hurricanes Katrina and Rita and last year's four U.S. landfalling major hurricanes have spawned an abundance of questions concerning the role that global warming might be playing in these events. This idea has…
The universal instability mechanism in an ascending moist air flow is theoretically proposed and analyzed. Its origin comes to the conflict between two processes: the increasing of pressure forcing applied to the boundary layer and the…
There is significant correlation between main development region sea surface temperature and the number of hurricanes that form in the Atlantic basin. The correlation between the same sea surface temperatures and the number of…
Tropical cyclone and sea surface temperature data have been used in several studies to forecast the total number of hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin. Sea surface temperature (SST) and latent heat flux (LHF) are correlated with tropical…
In this work, we study the presence of hurricanes on exoplanets. Tidally locked terrestrial planets around M dwarfs are the main targets of space missions looking to discover habitable exoplanets. The question of whether hurricanes can form…
Bayesian hierarchical models are proposed for modeling tropical cyclone characteristics and their damage potential in the Atlantic basin. We model the joint probability distribution of tropical cyclone characteristics and their damage…
Aerodynamic models are developed to describe coherent structures and transport processes in hurricanes moving over open seas. The models consist of the lower boundary layer and upper adiabatic layer. Except friction at the air/sea…
We present a simple method for the year-ahead prediction of the number of hurricanes making landfall in the US. The method is based on averages of historical annual hurricane numbers, and we perform a backtesting study to find the length of…