Related papers: A Universal Hurricane Frequency Function
We are developing schemes that predict future hurricane numbers by first predicting future sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and then apply the observed statistical relationship between SST and hurricane numbers. As part of this overall…
A global hybrid coupled model is developed, with the aim of studying the effects of ocean-atmosphere feedbacks on the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The model includes a global ocean general circulation model…
Secondary circulations (SC) associated with hurricanes are traditionally regarded as small perturbations superimposed on the primary circulations (PC). The reason behind this treatment roots in an observation that the magnitude of the SC is…
Oil slicks are widely distributed in the ocean today, as a kind of coverage on sea surface, they became a part of ocean environment and affect their surroundings. A stochastic-dynamic theoretical model proposed in this work to illustrate…
Based on realistic estimates of geophysical conditions it is demonstrated that by practical means; (1) the intensity of a hurricane can be diminished before making landfall; (2) and other circumstances, a potential hurricane might be…
Boundary layer processes drive the air-sea exchange of momentum, heat, and moisture that powers and shapes hurricanes. The height of the boundary layer is a critical parameter in engineering and meteorological models of hurricane wind…
Despite the dangers associated with tropical cyclones and their rainfall, the origins of storm moisture remains unclear. Existing studies have focused on the region 40-400 km from the cyclone center. It is known that the rainfall within…
Tropical cyclones present a serious threat to many coastal communities around the world. Many numerical weather prediction models provide deterministic forecasts with limited measures of their forecast uncertainty. Standard postprocessing…
In earlier work we considered methods for predicting future levels of hurricane activity based on the assumption that historical mean activity was at one constant level from 1900 to 1994, and has been at another constant level since then.…
Global warming due to the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases has become a great concern and has been linked to increased hurricane activity associated with higher sea surface temperatures with conflicting views. Our observational…
Global deep-learning weather prediction models have recently been shown to produce forecasts that rival those from physics-based models run at operational centers. It is unclear whether these models have encoded atmospheric dynamics, or…
Tropical cyclones that evolve from a non-tropical origin may pose a special challenge for predictions, as they often emerge at the end of a multi-scale cascade of atmospheric processes. Climatological studies have shown that the 'tropical…
Over its multibillion-year history, the Earth has experienced a wide range of climates. The long-term climate is controlled by the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, which is regulated by marine sequestration through chemical…
A new method for estimating tropical cyclone track uncertainty is presented and tested. This method uses a neural network to predict a bivariate normal distribution, which serves as an estimate for track uncertainty. We train the network…
Atlantic Canada faces significant hurricane threats from damaging winds and coastal flooding that are projected to intensify under climate change. This study adopts a two-stage framework. First, the evolution of wind and coastal-flood…
We study collective attention paid towards hurricanes through the lens of $n$-grams on Twitter, a social media platform with global reach. Using hurricane name mentions as a proxy for awareness, we find that the exogenous temporal dynamics…
As a consequence of greenhouse forcing, all state of the art general circulation models predict a positive temperature trend that is greater for the troposphere than the surface. This predicted positive trend increases in value with…
A formal averaging procedure over the air-sea interface is developed for both momentum and enthalpy surface-transfer coefficients, C_D and C_K, in hurricane conditions. This leads to splitting of both the transfer coefficients across the…
We show that the hourly rainfall rate distribution can be described by a simple power law to a good approximation. We show that the exponent of the distribution in tropics is universal and is equal to $1.13\pm 0.11$. At higher latitudes the…
Particularly important to hurricane risk assessment for coastal regions is finding accurate approximations of return probabilities of maximum windspeeds. Since extremes in maximum windspeed have a direct relationship to minimums in the…