Related papers: A Universal Hurricane Frequency Function
The time series of the number of hurricanes per year in the Atlantic basin shows a clear change of level between 1994 and 1995. The time series of the number of hurricanes that make landfall in the US, however, does not show the same…
Tropical cyclones (TCs), including hurricanes and typhoons, cause significant property damage and result in fatalities, making it crucial to understand the factors driving extreme TCs. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences TC…
A physical model is proposed for the prediction of the non-monotonic variation of the drag coefficient, C_d, with wind speed. The model approximates the effective C_d by the area-weighted averaging of the distinct drag coefficients…
With climate change accelerating, the frequency of climate disasters is expected to increase in the decades to come. There is ongoing debate as to how different climatic regions will be affected by such an acceleration. In this paper, we…
The third paper of the series (see previous ones in Refs.[1-2]) discusses basic physicalprocesses in the (quasi-) steady hurricane boundary layer (HBL), develops an approximate airflow model, establishes the HBL structure, and presents…
Ocean turbulence at meso- and submesocales affects the propagation of surface waves through refraction and scattering, inducing spatial modulations in significant wave height (SWH). We develop a theoretical framework that relates these…
The objective of this paper is to employ machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) techniques to obtain from input data (storm features) available in or derived from the HURDAT2 database models capable of simulating important hurricane…
We perform an objective change-point analysis on 106 years of historical hurricane number data. The algorithm we use looks at all possible combinations of change-points and compares them in terms of the variances of the differences between…
A hidden Markov model is developed to simulate tropical cyclone intensity evolution dependent on the surrounding large-scale environment. The model considers three unobserved (hidden) discrete states of intensification and associates each…
Results of direct numerical simulations have been used to show that intensive thermal convection in a horizontal layer and on a hemisphere can be described by the distributed chaos approach. The vorticity and helicity dominated distributed…
Annual North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) counts are frequently modeled as a Poisson process with a state-dependent rate. We provide a lower bound on the forecasting error of this class of models. Remarkably we find that this bound is…
The present study concerns the numerical modeling of sea-wave instability under the effect of logarithmic-wind profile in hurricane conditions. The central point of the study is the calculation of the wave growth rate, which is proportional…
The present study concerns the numerical modeling of sea-wave instability under the effect of logarithmic-wind profile in hurricane conditions. The central point of the study is the calculation of the wave growth rate, which is proportional…
Atmospheric heat redistribution shapes the remote appearance of rocky exoplanets but there is currently no easy way to predict a planet's heat redistribution from its physical properties. This paper proposes an analytical scaling theory for…
Africa is the primary source of cyclonic vortices over the tropical Atlantic. Over both land and sea, these vortices are entwined with deep convective activity, with the majority being African Easterly Wave troughs. Their convective…
In a recent paper Rousseau-Rizzi and Emanuel (2019) presented a derivation of an upper limit on maximum hurricane velocity at the surface. This derivation was based on a consideration of an infinitely narrow (differential) Carnot cycle with…
Recent research has suggested that the overall dependence of convection near coasts on large-scale atmospheric conditions is weaker than over the open ocean or inland areas. This is due to the fact that in coastal regions convection is…
Tropical cyclones occur over the Earth's tropical oceans, with characteristic genesis regions and tracks tied to the warm ocean surface that provides energy to sustain these storms. The study of tropical cyclogenesis and evolution on Earth…
Tropical cyclones are important drivers of coastal flooding which have severe negative public safety and economic consequences. Due to the rare occurrence of such events, high spatial and temporal resolution historical storm precipitation…
Studies agree on a significant global mean sea level rise in the 20th century and its recent 21st century acceleration in the satellite record. At regional scale, the evolution of sea level probability distributions is often assumed to be…