Related papers: Conditional negative association for competing urn…
This paper considers a two-color, single-draw urn model with two types of balls, denoted type $1$ and type $2$, with initial counts $Y^1_0\in N^+$ and $Y^2_0\in N^+$, respectively. At each discrete time step, a ball is drawn uniformly at…
Suppose you and your friend both do $n$ tosses of an unfair coin with probability of heads equal to $\alpha$. What is the behavior of the probability that you obtain at least $d$ more heads than your friend if you make $r$ additional…
There are $n$ independent Bernoulli random variables with parameters $p_i$ that are observed sequentially. Two players, A and B, act in turns starting with player A. Each player has the possibility on his turn, when $I_k=1$, to choose…
Random variables equidistributed on convex bodies have received quite a lot of attention in the last few years. In this paper we prove the negative association property (which generalizes the subindependence of coordinate slabs) for…
A cyclic urn is an urn model for balls of types $0,\ldots,m-1$. The urn starts at time zero with an initial configuration. Then, in each time step, first a ball is drawn from the urn uniformly and independently from the past. If its type is…
Negative probabilities emerged at intermediate steps in various attempts to predict the distributions of quantum interference. There is no consensus on their meaning yet. It has been suggested (Khrennikov, 1998) that negative probabilities…
This is the second part of a two-part investigation. We continue the study of a class of balanced urn schemes on balls of two colors (white and black). At each drawing, a sample of size $m\ge 1$ is drawn from the urn and ball addition rules…
In this paper, we provide theoretical and empirical estimates for the likelihood of a negative participation paradox under instant runoff voting in three-candidate elections. We determine the probability of the paradox and related…
The standard central limit theorem with a Gaussian attractor for the sum of independent random variables may lose its validity in presence of strong correlations between the added random contributions. Here, we study this problem for…
We study an urn process containing red and blue balls and two different strategies to reinforce the urn. Namely, a generalized P\'olya-type strategy versus an i.i.d. one. At each step, one of the two reinforcement strategies is chosen by…
We study a system of interacting reinforced random walks defined on polygons. At each stage, each particle chooses an edge to traverse which is incident to its position. We allow the probability of choosing a given edge to depend on the sum…
An urn model of Diaconis and some generalizations are discussed. A convergence theorem is proved that implies for Diaconis' model that the empirical distribution of balls in the urn converges with probability one to the uniform…
Balls and bins models are classical probabilistic models where balls are added to bins at random according to a certain rule. The balls and bins model with feedback is a non-linear generalisation of the P\'olya urn, where the probability of…
There has been a growing interest, both in physics and psychology, in understanding contextuality in experimentally observed quantities. Different approaches have been proposed to deal with contextual systems, and a promising one is…
In this paper we investigate the notion of conditional independence and prove several information inequalities for conditionally independent random variables.
Adaptive randomly reinforced urn (ARRU) is a two-color urn model where the updating process is defined by a sequence of non-negative random vectors $\{(D_{1,n}, D_{2,n});n\geq1\}$ and randomly evolving thresholds which utilize accruing…
A classical P\'olya urn scheme is a Markov process whose evolution is encoded by a replacement matrix $(R_{i,j})_{1\leq i,j\leq d}$. At every discrete time-step, we draw a ball uniformly at random, denote its colour $c$, and replace it in…
In a decision-making scenario, a principal could use conditional predictions from an expert agent to inform their choice. However, this approach would introduce a fundamental conflict of interest. An agent optimizing for predictive accuracy…
Consider an urn model where at each step one of $q$ colors is sampled according to some probability distribution and a ball of that color is placed in an urn. The distribution of assigning balls to urns may depend on the color of the ball.…
Consider ordinary bond percolation on a finite or countably infinite graph. Let s, t, a and b be vertices. An earlier paper proved the (nonintuitive) result that, conditioned on the event that there is no open path from s to t, the two…