Related papers: Bayesian analysis of caustic-crossing microlensing…
The frequency of microlensing planet detections, particularly in difficult-to-model high-magnification events, is increasing. Their analysis can require tens of thousands of processor hours or more, primarily because of the high density and…
Despite the suspected binarity for a significant fraction of Galactic lenses, the current photometric surveys detected binary microlensing events only for a small fraction of the total events. The detection efficiency is especially low for…
We demonstrate that microlensing can be used for detecting planets in binary stellar systems. This is possible because in the geometry of planetary binary systems where the planet orbits one of the binary component and the other binary star…
The interpretation of gravitational microlensing events caused by planetary systems or multiple stars is based on the n-point-mass lens model. The first planets detected by microlensing were well described by the two-point-mass model of a…
We study the possibility to detect extrasolar planets in M31 through pixel-lensing observations. Using a Monte Carlo approach, we select the physical parameters of the binary lens system, a star hosting a planet, and we calculate the…
A comprehensive new approach is presented for deriving probability densities of physical properties characterizing lens or source that constitute an observed galactic microlensing event. While previously encountered problems are overcome,…
I present a previously unpublished method for modeling multiple lens microlensing events that is based on the image centered ray shooting approach of Bennett and Rhie. It has been used to model all a wide variety of binary and triple lens…
We propose a new method for conducting Bayesian prediction that delivers accurate predictions without correctly specifying the unknown true data generating process. A prior is defined over a class of plausible predictive models. After…
Planets on eccentric orbits have a higher geometric probability of transiting their host star. By application of Bayes' theorem, we reverse this logic to show that the eccentricity distribution of transiting planets is positively biased.…
Count outcomes in longitudinal studies are frequent in clinical and engineering studies. In frequentist and Bayesian statistical analysis, methods such as Mixed linear models allow the variability or correlation within individuals to be…
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have revolutionised Bayesian data analysis over the years by making the direct computation of posterior probability densities feasible on modern workstations. However, the calculation of the prior…
In the companion paper we began the task of systematically studying the detection of planets in wide orbits ($a > 1.5 R_E$) via microlensing surveys. In this paper we continue, focusing on repeating events. We find that, if all planetary…
The interpretation of data in terms of multi-parameter models of new physics, using the Bayesian approach, requires the construction of multi-parameter priors. We propose a construction that uses elements of Bayesian reference analysis. Our…
Analysis of observational studies increasingly confronts the challenge of determining which of a possibly high-dimensional set of available covariates are required to satisfy the assumption of ignorable treatment assignment for estimation…
We present the analysis of the caustic-crossing binary microlensing event OGLE-2017-BLG-0039. Thanks to the very long duration of the event, with an event time scale $t_{\rm E}\sim 130$ days, the microlens parallax is precisely measured…
We investigate the pattern of anomalies in the light curves of caustic-crossing binary microlensing events induced by spot(s) on the lensed source star. For this purpose, we perform simulations of events with various models of spots. From…
The gravitational field of a galaxy can act as a lens and deflect the light emitted by a more distant object such as a quasar. Strong gravitational lensing causes multiple images of the same quasar to appear in the sky. Since the light in…
The start of LHC has motivated an effort to determine the relative probability of the different regions of the MSSM parameter space, taking into account the present, theoretical and experimental, wisdom about the model. Since the present…
Parameter estimates for associated genetic variants, report ed in the initial discovery samples, are often grossly inflated compared to the values observed in the follow-up replication samples. This type of bias is a consequence of the…
Using observation data to estimate unknown parameters in computational models is broadly important. This task is often challenging because solutions are non-unique due to the complexity of the model and limited observation data. However,…