Related papers: Bayesian analysis of caustic-crossing microlensing…
I describe ongoing work developing Bayesian methods for flexible modeling of arrival time series data without binning, aiming to improve detection and measurement of X-ray and gamma-ray pulsars, and of pulses in gamma-ray bursts. The…
We use the statistics of caustic crossings induced by microlensing in the lens system Q~2237+0305 to study the lens galaxy peculiar velocity. We calculate the caustic crossing rates for a comprehensive family of stellar mass functions and…
We discuss how to determine and combine upper limits based on observed events and estimated backgrounds with a Bayesian method, when insignificant signals are observed in independent measurements. In addition to some general features…
The measurement of the efficiency of an event selection is always an important part of the analysis of experimental data. The statistical techniques which are needed to determine the efficiency and its uncertainty are reviewed. Frequentist…
We report the discovery and the analysis of the short timescale binary-lens microlensing event, MOA-2015-BLG-337. The lens system could be a planetary system with a very low mass host, around the brown dwarf/planetary mass boundary, or a…
In spite of the recent surge of interest in quantile regression, joint estimation of linear quantile planes remains a great challenge in statistics and econometrics. We propose a novel parametrization that characterizes any collection of…
We study three-dimensional microlensing where two lenses are located at different distances along the line of sight. We formulate the lens equation in complex notations and recover several previous results. There are in total either 4 or 6…
When there is more than one source of light along the line of sight to a gravitationally lensed object, the characteristics of the observed light curve are influenced by the presence of the light that is not lensed. In this paper we develop…
Constraints are a natural choice for prior information in Bayesian inference. In various applications, the parameters of interest lie on the boundary of the constraint set. In this paper, we use a method that implicitly defines a…
Research in extrasolar-planet science is data-driven. With the advent of radial-velocity instruments like HARPS and HARPS-N, and transit space missions like Kepler, our ability to discover and characterise extrasolar planets is no longer…
Ensuring safe operation of safety-critical complex systems interacting with their environment poses significant challenges, particularly when the system's world model relies on machine learning algorithms to process the perception input. A…
Models for which the likelihood function can be evaluated only up to a parameter-dependent unknown normalising constant, such as Markov random field models, are used widely in computer science, statistical physics, spatial statistics, and…
The current standard Bayesian approach to model calibration, which assigns a Gaussian process prior to the discrepancy term, often suffers from issues of unidentifiability and computational complexity and instability. When the goal is to…
A Bayes factor is proposed for testing whether the effect of a key predictor variable on the dependent variable is linear or nonlinear, possibly while controlling for certain covariates. The test can be used (i) when one is interested in…
Predictive models that satisfy group fairness criteria in aggregate for members of a protected class, but do not guarantee subgroup fairness, could produce biased predictions for individuals at the intersection of two or more protected…
The light curves observed in microlensing events due to binary lenses span an extremely wide variety of forms, characterised by U-shaped caustic crossings and/or additional smoother peaks. However, all peaks of the binary-lens light curve…
An extrasolar planet can be detected via microlensing from the perturbation it makes in the smooth lensing light curve of the primary. In addition to the conventional photometric microlensing, astrometric observation of the center-of-light…
We propose a general method to carry out a valid Bayesian analysis of a finite-dimensional `targeted' parameter in the presence of a finite-dimensional nuisance parameter. We apply our methods to causal inference based on estimating…
Current gravitational microlensing surveys are observing hundreds of millions of stars in the Galactic bulge - which makes finding rare microlensing events a challenging tasks. In almost all previous works, microlensing events have been…
In statistical applications, it is common to encounter parameters supported on a varying or unknown dimensional space. Examples include the fused lasso regression, the matrix recovery under an unknown low rank, etc. Despite the ease of…