Related papers: Bayesian analysis of caustic-crossing microlensing…
Microlensing can be used to discover exoplanets of a wide range of masses with orbits beyond ~ 1 AU, and even free-floating planets. The WFIRST mission will use microlensing to discover approximately 1600 planets by monitoring ~100 million…
Determining physical parameters of binary microlenses is hampered by the lack of information about the angular Einstein radius due to the difficulty of resolving caustic crossings. In this paper, we present the analysis of the binary…
Astrometric observations of microlensing events were originally proposed to determine the lens proper motion with which the physical parameters of lenses can be better constrained. In this proceeding, we demonstrate that besides this…
The recent discovery of fast transient events near critical curves of massive galaxy clusters, which are interpreted as highly magnified individual stars in giant arcs due to caustic crossing, opens up the possibility of using such…
Radial velocity (RV) planet searches are increasingly finding planets with small velocity amplitudes, with long orbital periods, or in multiple planet systems. Bayesian inference has the potential to improve the interpretation of existing…
The design of reliable indicators to anticipate critical transitions in complex systems is an im portant task in order to detect a coming sudden regime shift and to take action in order to either prevent it or mitigate its consequences. We…
This paper provides a critical review of the Bayesian perspective of causal inference based on the potential outcomes framework. We review the causal estimands, identification assumptions, the general structure of Bayesian inference of…
Scenario-based testing of automated driving functions has become a promising method to reduce time and cost compared to real-world testing. In scenario-based testing automated functions are evaluated in a set of pre-defined scenarios. These…
Tuning particle accelerators is a challenging and time-consuming task that can be automated and carried out efficiently using suitable optimization algorithms, such as model-based Bayesian optimization techniques. One of the major…
We introduce the BREASE framework for the Bayesian analysis of randomized controlled trials with a binary treatment and a binary outcome. Approaching the problem from a causal inference perspective, we propose parameterizing the likelihood…
Since the first microlensing planet discovery in 2003, more than 200 planets have been detected with gravitational microlensing, in addition to several free-floating planet and black hole candidates. In this chapter the microlensing theory…
The successful prediction of lensing events is a new and exciting enterprise that provides opportunities to discover and study planetary systems. The companion paper investigates the underlying theory. This paper is devoted to outlining the…
Microlensing is a powerful tool for discovering cold exoplanets, and the The Roman Space Telescope microlensing survey will discover over 1000 such planets. Rapid, automated classification of Roman's microlensing events can be used to…
In an era of large spectroscopic surveys of stars and big data, sophisticated statistical methods become more and more important in order to infer fundamental stellar parameters such as mass and age. Bayesian techniques are powerful methods…
In this paper, we show that the pattern of microlensing light curve anomalies induced by multiple planets are well described by the superposition of those of the single-planet systems where the individual planet-primary binary pairs act as…
Since the first observation of triple-lens gravitational microlensing in 2006, analyses of six more events have been published by the end of 2018. In three events the lens was a star with two planets; four involved a binary star with a…
This paper is an invited commentary on Tamas Budavari's presentation, "On statistical cross-identification in astronomy," for the Statistical Challenges in Modern Astronomy V conference held at Pennsylvania State University in June 2011. I…
Exoplanet research is carried out at the limits of the capabilities of current telescopes and instruments. The studied signals are weak, and often embedded in complex systematics from instrumental, telluric, and astrophysical sources.…
Caustic-crossing binary lenses make up about 5% of all detected microlenses. The relative proper motion of a caustic-crossing binary lens can be measured with observations from a single terrestrial telescope. Thus, uniquely, binary lenses…
A common problem in natural sciences is the comparison of competing models in the light of observed data. Bayesian model comparison provides a statistically sound framework for this comparison based on the evidence each model provides for…