Related papers: Looking for continuous local martingales with the …
For the pedestrian observer, financial markets look completely random with erratic and uncontrollable behavior. To a large extend, this is correct. At first approximation the difference between real price changes and the random walk model…
It is well known that upward conditioned Brownian motion is a three-dimensional Bessel process, and that a downward conditioned Bessel process is a Brownian motion. We give a simple proof for this result, which generalizes to any continuous…
Let the process Y(t) be a Skorohod integral process with respect to Brownian motion. We use a recent result by Tudor (2004), to prove that Y(t) can be represented as the limit of linear combinations of processes that are products of forward…
There is a close connection between intersections of Brownian motion paths and percolation on trees. Recently, ideas from probability on trees were an important component of the multifractal analysis of Brownian occupation measure, in joint…
In a two-period financial market where a stock is traded dynamically and European options at maturity are traded statically, we study the so-called martingale Schr\"odinger bridge Q*; that is, the minimal-entropy martingale measure among…
This work is a numerical experiment of stochastic motion of conservative Hamiltonian system or weakly damped Brownian particles. The objective is to prove the existence of path probability and to compute its values. By observing a large…
We propose a stochastic process for stock movements that, with just one source of Brownian noise, has an instantaneous volatility that rises from a type of statistical feedback across many time scales. This results in a stationary…
In this paper, we consider testing the martingale difference hypothesis for high-dimensional time series. Our test is built on the sum of squares of the element-wise max-norm of the proposed matrix-valued nonlinear dependence measure at…
This note continues investigation of randomness-type properties emerging in idealized financial markets with continuous price processes. It is shown, without making any probabilistic assumptions, that the strong variation exponent of…
The analysis of high-frequency financial data is often impeded by the presence of noise. This article is motivated by intraday return data in which market microstructure noise appears to be rough, that is, best captured by a continuous-time…
We consider plain vanilla European options written on an underlying asset that follows a continuous time semi-Markov multiplicative process. We derive a formula and a renewal type equation for the martingale option price. In the case in…
We analyze tick data of yen-dollar exchange with a focus on its up and down movement. We show that there exists a rather particular conditional probability structure with such high frequency data. This result provides us with evidence to…
The classic model of computable randomness considers martingales that take real or rational values. Recent work by Bienvenu et al. (2012) and Teutsch (2014) shows that fundamental features of the classic model change when the martingales…
In this paper, we develop a theory of common decomposition for two correlated Brownian motions, in which, by using change of time method, the correlated Brownian motions are represented by a triplet of processes, $(X,Y,T)$, where $X$ and…
We study Markov processes conditioned so that their local time must grow slower than a prescribed function. Building upon recent work on Brownian motion with constrained local time in [5] and [33], we study transience and recurrence for a…
We derive the short-maturity asymptotics for prices of options on realized variance in local-stochastic volatility models. We consider separately the short-maturity asymptotics for out-of-the-money and in-the-money options cases. The…
Specialized topics on financial data analysis from a numerical and physical point of view are discussed. They pertain to the analysis of crash prediction in stock market indices and to the persistence or not of coherent and random sequences…
The value of an American option is the maximized value of the discounted cash flows from the option. At each time step, one needs to compare the immediate exercise value with the continuation value and decide to exercise as soon as the…
The paper develops no arbitrage results for trajectory based models by imposing general constraints on the trading portfolios. The main condition imposed, in order to avoid arbitrage opportunities, is a local continuity requirement on the…
We observe that the probability distribution of the Brownian motion with drift $-c \frac x {1-t}$ where $c\not =1$ is singular with respect to that of the classical Brownian bridge measure on $[0,1]$, while their Cameron-Martin spaces are…