Related papers: Looking for continuous local martingales with the …
We study a classical Bayesian statistics problem of sequentially testing the sign of the drift of an arithmetic Brownian motion with the $0$-$1$ loss function and a constant cost of observation per unit of time for general prior…
Based on a weak convergence argument, we provide a necessary and sufficient condition that guarantees that a nonnegative local martingale is indeed a martingale. Typically, conditions of this sort are expressed in terms of integrability…
Continuous time models in the theory of real options give explicit formulas for optimal exercise strategies when options are simple and the price of an underlying asset follows a geometric Brownian motion. This paper suggests a general,…
Statistically self-similar measures on $[0,1]$ are limit of multiplicative cascades of random weights distributed on the $b$-adic subintervals of $[0,1]$. These weights are i.i.d, positive, and of expectation $1/b$. We extend these cascades…
New fast estimation methods stemming from control theory lead to a fresh look at time series, which bears some resemblance to "technical analysis". The results are applied to a typical object of financial engineering, namely the forecast of…
Our investigation is specially motivated by the stochastic version of a common model of potential spread in a dendritic tree. We do not assume the noise in the junction points to be Markovian. In fact, we allow for long-range dependence in…
This paper explores hypothesis testing for the parametric forms of the mean and variance functions in regression models under diverging-dimension settings. To mitigate the curse of dimensionality, we introduce weighted residual empirical…
We extend earlier results on conditioning of super-Brownian motion to general branching rules. We obtain representations of the conditioned process, both as an $h$-transform, and as an unconditioned superprocess with immigration along a…
We propose procedures for testing whether stock price processes are martingales based on limit order type betting strategies. We first show that the null hypothesis of martingale property of a stock price process can be tested based on the…
We consider a branching Brownian motion in $\mathbb{R}^d$. We prove that there exists a random subset $\Theta$ of $\mathbb{S}^{d-1}$ such that the limit of the derivative martingale exists simultaneously for all directions $\theta \in…
The fractional Brownian motion (fBm) extends the standard Brownian motion by introducing some dependence between non-overlapping increments. Consequently, if one considers for example that log-prices follow an fBm, one can exploit the…
We develop a numerical method for the martingale analogue of the Benamou--Brenier optimal transport problem, which seeks a martingale interpolating two prescribed marginals which is closest to the Brownian motion. Recent contributions have…
We study the temporal fluctuations in time-dependent stock prices (both individual and composite) as a stochastic phenomenon using general techniques and methods of nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. In particular, we analyze stock price…
One problem of wide interest involves estimating expected crossing-times. Several tools have been developed to solve this problem beginning with the works of Wald and the theory of sequential analysis. An extension of his approach is…
Recently, D. Williams \cite{williams} gave an explicit example of a random time $\rho $ associated with Brownian motion such that $\rho $ is not a stopping time but $\mathbb{E}M_{\rho}=\mathbb{E}M_{0}$ for every bounded martingale $M$. The…
In this paper we derive novel change of variable formulas for stochastic integrals w.r.t. a time-changed Brownian motion where we assume that the time-change is a general increasing stochastic process with finitely many jumps in a bounded…
We present new links between some remarkable martingales found in the study of the Binary Search Tree, or of the Bisection Problem, looking at them on the probability space of a continuous time binary branching process.
The model consists of a signal process $X$ which is a general Brownian diffusion process and an observation process $Y$, also a diffusion process, which is supposed to be correlated to the signal process. We suppose that the process $Y$ is…
The main result is a counterpart of the theorem of Monroe [\emph{Ann. Probability} \textbf{6} (1978) 42--56] for a geometric Brownian motion: A process is equivalent to a time change of a geometric Brownian motion if and only if it is a…
We study a variant of the martingale optimal transport problem in a multi-period setting to derive robust price bounds of a financial derivative. On top of marginal and martingale constraints, we introduce a time-homogeneity assumption,…