Related papers: On resolving the Savage-Dickey paradox
For a sample of absolutely bounded i.i.d. random variables with a continuous density the cumulative distribution function of the sample variance is represented by a univariate integral over a Fourier series. If the density is a polynomial…
Simpson's Paradox is a well-known phenomenon in statistical science, where the relationship between the response variable $X$ and a certain explanatory factor of interest $A$ reverses when an additional factor $B_1$ is considered. This…
In a range of genomic applications, it is of interest to quantify the evidence that the signal at site~$i$ is active given conditionally independent replicate observations summarized by the sample mean and variance $(\bar Y, s^2)$ at each…
The Bayes factor is the gold-standard figure of merit for comparing fits of models to data, for hypothesis selection and parameter estimation. However it is little used because it is computationally very intensive. Here it is shown how…
Sample size criteria are often expressed in terms of the concentration of the posterior density, as controlled by some sort of error bound. Since this is done pre-experimentally, one can regard the posterior density as a function of the…
The Cauchy distribution is usually presented as a mathematical curiosity, an exception to the Law of Large Numbers, or even as an "Evil" distribution in some introductory courses. It therefore surprised us when Drton and Xiao (2016) proved…
Sup-norm curve estimation is a fundamental statistical problem and, in principle, a premise for the construction of confidence bands for infinite-dimensional parameters. In a Bayesian framework, the issue of whether the…
Bayesian predictive densities when the observed data $x$ and the target variable $y$ to be predicted have different distributions are investigated by using the framework of information geometry. The performance of predictive densities is…
Many approximate Bayesian inference methods assume a particular parametric form for approximating the posterior distribution. A multivariate Gaussian distribution provides a convenient density for such approaches; examples include the…
We consider a generalization of the classifier-based density-ratio estimation task to a quasiprobabilistic setting where probability densities can be negative. The problem with most loss functions used for this task is that they implicitly…
Although Bayesian inference is an immensely popular paradigm among a large segment of scientists including statisticians, most applications consider objective priors and need critical investigations (Efron, 2013, Science). While it has…
The Lutz-Kelker correction is intended to give an unbiased estimate for stellar parallaxes and magnitudes, but it is shown explicitly that it does not. This paradox results from the application of an argument about sample statistics to the…
We consider a novel paradigm for Bayesian testing of hypotheses and Bayesian model comparison. Our alternative to the traditional construction of posterior probabilities that a given hypothesis is true or that the data originates from a…
Both the Bayes factor and the relative belief ratio satisfy the principle of evidence and so can be seen to be valid measures of statistical evidence. Certainly Bayes factors are regularly employed. The question then is: which of these…
Perfectly incompressible materials do not exist in nature but are a useful approximation of several media which can be deformed in non-isothermal processes but undergo very small volume variation. In this paper the linear analysis of the…
We introduce an approach based on the Givens representation for posterior inference in statistical models with orthogonal matrix parameters, such as factor models and probabilistic principal component analysis (PPCA). We show how the Givens…
Statistical inference can be seen as information processing involving input information and output information that updates belief about some unknown parameters. We consider the Bayesian framework for making inferences about dynamical…
We introduce a Bayesian approach to predictive density calibration and combination that accounts for parameter uncertainty and model set incompleteness through the use of random calibration functionals and random combination weights.…
We consider the problem of the Bayesian inference of drift and diffusion coefficient functions in a stochastic differential equation given discrete observations of a realisation of its solution. We give conditions for the well-posedness and…
Bayesian hypothesis testing is re-examined from the perspective of an a priori assessment of the test statistic distribution under the alternative. By assessing the distribution of an observable test statistic, rather than prior parameter…