Simpson's Paradox with Any Given Number of Factors
Abstract
Simpson's Paradox is a well-known phenomenon in statistical science, where the relationship between the response variable and a certain explanatory factor of interest reverses when an additional factor is considered. This paper explores the extension of Simpson's Paradox to any given number of factors, referred to as the -factor Simpson's Paradox. We first provide a rigorous definition of the -factor Simpson's Paradox, then demonstrate the existence of a probability distribution through a geometric construction. Specifically, we show that for any positive integer , it is possible to construct a probability distribution in which the conclusion about the effect of on reverses each time an additional factor is introduced for . A detailed example for illustrates the construction. Our results highlight that, contrary to the intuition that more data leads to more accurate inferences, the inclusion of additional factors can repeatedly reverse conclusions, emphasizing the complexity of statistical inference in the presence of multiple confounding variables.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.2502.12864,
title = {Simpson's Paradox with Any Given Number of Factors},
author = {Guisheng Dai and Weizhen Wang},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2502.12864},
year = {2025}
}