English

Simpson's Paradox with Any Given Number of Factors

Statistics Theory 2025-02-19 v1 Statistics Theory

Abstract

Simpson's Paradox is a well-known phenomenon in statistical science, where the relationship between the response variable XX and a certain explanatory factor of interest AA reverses when an additional factor B1B_1 is considered. This paper explores the extension of Simpson's Paradox to any given number nn of factors, referred to as the nn-factor Simpson's Paradox. We first provide a rigorous definition of the nn-factor Simpson's Paradox, then demonstrate the existence of a probability distribution through a geometric construction. Specifically, we show that for any positive integer nn, it is possible to construct a probability distribution in which the conclusion about the effect of AA on XX reverses each time an additional factor BiB_i is introduced for i=1,...,ni=1,...,n. A detailed example for n=3n = 3 illustrates the construction. Our results highlight that, contrary to the intuition that more data leads to more accurate inferences, the inclusion of additional factors can repeatedly reverse conclusions, emphasizing the complexity of statistical inference in the presence of multiple confounding variables.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2502.12864,
  title  = {Simpson's Paradox with Any Given Number of Factors},
  author = {Guisheng Dai and Weizhen Wang},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2502.12864},
  year   = {2025}
}