Related papers: Aerodynamic Models for Hurricanes IV. On the hurri…
Aerodynamic models are developed to describe coherent structures and transport processes in hurricanes moving over open seas. The models consist of the lower boundary layer and upper adiabatic layer. Except friction at the air/sea…
This second paper of the series (see the first one in [1]) models the dynamics and structure of upper hurricane layer in adiabatic approximation. Formulation of simplified aerodynamic model allows analytically express the radial…
A theoretical formulation for the early stage (Tropical Storm stage) of hurricane development is proposed. These solutions are not only consistent with observations but also offer some new insights into hurricane properties. This is the…
In this series of papers, an analytical theory for the early stage (tropical storm stage) of hurricane development is proposed. In Part I, a linear theory and a nonlinear theory have been formulated. It was found in Part I that the linear…
We present results from the sixth stage of a project to build a statistical hurricane model. Previous papers have described our modelling of the tracks, genesis, and lysis of hurricanes. In our track model we have so far employed a normal…
The third paper of the series (see previous ones in Refs.[1-2]) discusses basic physicalprocesses in the (quasi-) steady hurricane boundary layer (HBL), develops an approximate airflow model, establishes the HBL structure, and presents…
We describe results from the fifth stage of a project to build a statistical model of tropical cyclone tracks. The previous stages considered genesis and the shape of tracks. We now consider in more detail how to represent the lysis (death)…
In this paper, we study the problem of forecasting the next year's number of Atlantic hurricanes, which is relevant in many fields of applications such as land-use planning, hazard mitigation, reinsurance and long-term weather derivative…
Fast and accurate prediction of hurricane evolution from genesis onwards is needed to reduce loss of life and enhance community resilience. In this work, a novel model development methodology for predicting storm trajectory is proposed…
This popular article provides a short summary of the progress and prospects in Weather and Climate Modelling for the benefit of high school and undergraduate college students and early career researchers. Although this is not a…
Recent US major landfalling hurricanes Katrina and Rita and last year's four U.S. landfalling major hurricanes have spawned an abundance of questions concerning the role that global warming might be playing in these events. This idea has…
Secondary circulations (SC) associated with hurricanes are traditionally regarded as small perturbations superimposed on the primary circulations (PC). The reason behind this treatment roots in an observation that the magnitude of the SC is…
Bayesian hierarchical models are proposed for modeling tropical cyclone characteristics and their damage potential in the Atlantic basin. We model the joint probability distribution of tropical cyclone characteristics and their damage…
One possible method for predicting landfalling hurricane numbers is to first predict the number of hurricanes in the basin and then convert that prediction to a prediction of landfalling hurricane numbers using an estimated proportion.…
We describe results from the third stage of a project to build a statistical model for hurricane tracks. In the first stage we modelled the unconditional mean track. In the second stage we modelled the unconditional variance of fluctuations…
We continue with our program to derive simple practical methods that can be used to predict the number of US landfalling hurricanes a year in advance. We repeat an earlier study, but for a slightly different definition landfalling…
One way to predict hurricane numbers would be to predict sea surface temperature, and then predict hurricane numbers as a function of the predicted sea surface temperature. For certain parametric models for sea surface temperature and the…
We describe results from the second stage of a project to build a statistical model for hurricane tracks. In the first stage we modelled the unconditional mean track. We now attempt to model the unconditional variance of fluctuations around…
Tornado prediction methods and main mechanisms of tornado genesis were analyzed. A model, based on the superposition principle, has been built. For efficiency evaluation, the constructed model has been tested on real-life data obtained from…
We consider a class of growth models and models of turbulence based on the randomly stirred fluid. The similarity between the predictions of these models, noted a decade earlier, is understood on the basis of a stochastic quantization…