Related papers: Inflation as a function of labor force change rate…
We consider stochastic inflation coarse-grained using a general class of exponential filters. Such a coarse-graining prescription gives rise to inflaton-Langevin equations sourced by colored noise that is correlated in $e$-fold time. The…
Standard methods, such as sequential procedures based on Johansen's (pseudo-)likelihood ratio (PLR) test, for determining the co-integration rank of a vector autoregressive (VAR) system of variables integrated of order one can be…
We develop a multivariate functional autoregressive model (MFAR), which captures the cross-correlation among multiple functional time series and thus improves forecast accuracy. We estimate the parameters under the Bayesian dynamic linear…
In this paper, we discuss the inflationary magnetogenesis scenario, in which the coupling function is introduced to break the conformal invariance of electromagnetic action. Unlike in conventional models, we deduce the Maxwell's equations…
In this paper we extend our previous treatment of the one-loop corrections to inflation. Previously we calculated the one-loop corrections to the background and the two-point correlation function of inflaton fluctuations in a specific model…
This paper investigates economic convergence in terms of real income per capita among the autonomous regions of Spain. In order to converge, the series should cointegrate. This necessary condition is checked using two testing strategies…
This paper assesses the link between central bank's policy rate, inflation rate and output gap through Taylor rule equation in both United States and United Kingdom from 1990 to 2020. Also, it analyses the relationship between monetary…
We investigate the cosmological inflation for the Einstein-Hilbert action plus the Higgs potential function and the Gauss-Bonnet term coupled with the Higgs scalar field through a dilaton-like coupling. Then, using the…
This article investigates the causality structure of financial time series. We concentrate on three main approaches to measuring causality: linear Granger causality, kernel generalisations of Granger causality (based on ridge regression and…
In this paper we introduce a general method for estimating the quadratic covariation of one or more spot parameters processes associated with continuous time semimartingales. This estimator is applicable to a wide range of spot parameter…
We study how a central bank should dynamically set short-term nominal interest rates to stabilize inflation and unemployment when macroeconomic relationships are uncertain and time-varying. We model monetary policy as a sequential…
Most of the inflationary models that are in agreement with the Planck data rely on the presence of non-renormalizable operators. If the connection to low energy particle physics is made, the renormalization group (RG) introduces a…
We construct the supersymmetric economical 3-3-1 model which contains inflationary scenario and avoids the monopole puzzle. Based on the spontaneous symmetry breaking pattern (with three steps), the $F$-term inflation is derived. The…
I have analyzed the practicality of the Evans Rule in the state based forward guidance and possible ways to reform it. I examined the biases, measurement errors, and other limitations extant in the unemployment and the inflation rate in the…
Inflation forecasting is a core socio-economic challenge in modern macroeconomic modeling, especially when cyclical, structural, and shock factors act simultaneously. Traditional systems such as FPAS and ARIMA often struggle with cyclical…
This short note aims to introduce a rule which admits to compute %any time rate of interest in any time per any time, rate of inflation per any time in any moment, if the rate of interest or the rate of inflation by unity of time is an…
We empirically investigate the distributional effects of inflation on workers' unemployment tail risks using instrumental variable quantile regression. We find that supply-driven inflation disproportionately raises unemployment tail risks…
Though simple inflationary models describe the CMB well, their corrections are often plagued by infrared effects that obstruct a reliable calculation of late-time behaviour. We adapt to cosmology tools designed to address similar issues in…
Near equilibrium, the symmetric part of the time-integrated steady-state covariance, i.e., the time integral of correlation functions, is governed by the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, while the antisymmetric part vanishes due to Onsager…
Estimation of the covariance matrix of asset returns is crucial to portfolio construction. As suggested by economic theories, the correlation structure among assets differs between emerging markets and developed countries. It is therefore…