Related papers: Inflation as a function of labor force change rate…
The study investigates the effects of crude oil prices on inflation and interest rate in Ghana using data obtained from Bank of Ghana data repository. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller and the Phillips-Perron tests were used to test the presence…
The relationship between inflation and predictors such as unemployment is potentially nonlinear with a strength that varies over time, and prediction errors error may be subject to large, asymmetric shocks. Inspired by these concerns, we…
The paper analyses cointegration in vector autoregressive processes (VARs) for the cases when both the number of coordinates, $N$, and the number of time periods, $T$, are large and of the same order. We propose a way to examine a VAR of…
This article develops nonparametric cointegrating regression models with endogeneity and semi-long memory. We assume that semi-long memory is produced in the regressor process by tempering of random shock coefficients. The fundamental…
Timely monetary policy decision-making requires timely core inflation measures. We create a new core inflation series that is explicitly designed to succeed at that goal. Precisely, we introduce the Assemblage Regression, a generalized…
Inflation exhibits state-dependent, skewed, and fat-tailed dynamics that make risk a central concern for monetary policy. Accordingly, inflation risks are distributional and cannot be fully captured by mean-based models. We propose a…
We formulate a forward inflation index model with multi-factor volatility structure featuring a parametric form that allows calibration to correlations between indices of different tenors observed in the market. Assuming the nominal…
Robust inflation measures gauge inflation behavior by excluding volatile expenditure categories from headline inflation. We evaluate the forecasting performance of a wide set of such measures between 1970 and 2024, including core, median,…
This paper analyzes the empirical relationship between the inflation rate and its proximate determinants in Argentina, using quarterly data over the period 2004-2022 and an error-correction vector model approach. Unlike previous literature,…
The causal compatibility question asks whether a given causal structure graph -- possibly involving latent variables -- constitutes a genuinely plausible causal explanation for a given probability distribution over the graph's observed…
This note examines the influence of covariance inflation on the distance between the measured observation and the simulated (or predicted) observation with respect to the state estimate. In order for the aforementioned distance to be…
We study loop corrections to correlation functions of inflationary perturbations. Previous calculations have found that the two-point function can have a logarithmic running of the form log(k/mu), where k is the wavenumber of the…
This study analyzes the impacts of exchange rate and inflation on exports in Turkiye. Annual data for the period 1995-2023 were used in the analysis. The Johansen cointegration analysis and Dynamic Least Squares (DOLS) method were employed…
Inflation is one of the most important economic indicators closely watched by both public institutions and private agents. This study compares the performance of a traditional econometric model, Mixed Data Sampling regression, with one of…
Share prices of financial companies from the S&P 500 list have been modeled by a linear function of consumer price indices in the USA. The Johansen and Engle-Granger tests for cointegration both demonstrated the presence of an equilibrium…
We provide a theoretical model of $F(R)$ gravity in which it is possible to describe in a unified way inflation, an early and a late dark energy era, in the presence of a light axion particle which plays the role of the dark matter…
This paper investigates how institutional rigidities shape inflation persistence in transition economies, focusing on labor market institutions and exchange rate regimes. Using a large panel of transition countries over the period…
The implications of the WMAP (Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe) third year data for inflation are investigated using both the slow-roll approximation and an exact numerical integration of the inflationary power spectra including a…
Inflation is part of the Standard Model of the Universe supported by CMB and large scale structure LSS datasets. This review presents new developments of inflation in three main chapters. (I): The effective theory of inflation a la…
Multicointegration is traditionally defined as a particular long run relationship among variables in a parametric vector autoregressive model that introduces additional cointegrating links between these variables and partial sums of the…