Related papers: Inflation as a function of labor force change rate…
In this paper, we consider a framework adapting the notion of cointegration when two asset prices are generated by a driftless It\^{o}-semimartingale featuring jumps with infinite activity, observed regularly and synchronously at high…
This paper aims to reevaluate the Taylor Rule, through a linear and a nonlinear method, such that its estimated federal funds rates match those actually previously implemented by the Federal Reserve Bank. In the linear method, this paper…
The empirical literature provides mixed results on the relationship between inflation and unemployment, therefore, there is no consensus on validity and stability of the Phillips Curve. It also seems to be closely related with…
The standard wage Phillips curve aggregates away from which workers reset wages when. I show this aggregation omits a first-order term: the covariance between workers' cost-push exposure and their reset frequency. I introduce two sufficient…
The paper studies nonstationary high-dimensional vector autoregressions of order $k$, VAR($k$). Additional deterministic terms such as trend or seasonality are allowed. The number of time periods, $T$, and the number of coordinates, $N$,…
We propose a new model for the joint evolution of the European inflation rate, the European Central Bank official interest rate and the short-term interest rate, in a stochastic, continuous time setting. We derive the valuation equation for…
In many longitudinal settings, time-varying covariates may not be measured at the same time as responses and are often prone to measurement error. Naive last-observation-carried-forward methods incur estimation biases, and existing…
We propose a test of single-scalar inflation based on using the well-measured scalar power spectrum to reconstruct the tensor power spectrum, up to a single integration constant. Our test is a sort of integrated version of the single-scalar…
We have modeled the employment/population ratio in the largest developed countries. Our results show that the evolution of the employment rate since 1970 can be predicted with a high accuracy by a linear dependence on the logarithm of real…
Using an analog of the boundary element method in engineering and science, we analyze and model unemployment rate in Austria, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United States as a function of inflation and the change in…
A robust thermodynamic relation between inflation corrected monetary valuation and energy emerges from existing work. This is based on the energy used, the aggregate efficiency of all production processes ($\Lambda(t)$) in terms of Joules…
The notion that an independent central bank reduces a country's inflation is a controversial hypothesis. To date, it has not been possible to satisfactorily answer this question because the complex macroeconomic structure that gives rise to…
The method of cointegration in regression analysis is based on an assumption of stationary increments. Stationary increments with fixed time lag are called integration I(d). A class of regression models where cointegration works was…
A quantitative model is presented linking the rate of inflation and unemployment to the change in the level of labor force. The link between the involved variables is a linear one with all coefficients of individual and generalized models…
The problem of causal inference is to determine if a given probability distribution on observed variables is compatible with some causal structure. The difficult case is when the causal structure includes latent variables. We here introduce…
In this study, we aimed to examine the effect of VAT revenues and Deposit Interest Rates on Inflation in Turkey between 1985-2022. Within the framework of econometric analysis of the obtained data, the analysis was carried out using ADF…
We employ the Bayesian framework to define a cointegration measure aimed to represent long term relationships between time series. For visualization of these relationships we introduce a dissimilarity matrix and a map based on the Sorting…
For the large family of ARMA models with variable coefficients (TV-ARMA), either deterministic or stochastic, we provide an explicit and computationally tractable representation based on the general solution of the associated linear…
The Lucas critique has exposed the problem of the trade-off between changes in monetary policy and structural breaks in economic time series. The search for and characterisation of such breaks has been a major econometric task ever since.…
Stock market comovements are examined using cointegration, Granger causality tests and nonlinear approaches in context of mutual information and correlations. Underlying data sets are affected by non-stationarities and trends, we also apply…