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Consider the following class of learning schemes: $$\hat{\boldsymbol{\beta}} := \arg\min_{\boldsymbol{\beta}}\;\sum_{j=1}^n \ell(\boldsymbol{x}_j^\top\boldsymbol{\beta}; y_j) + \lambda R(\boldsymbol{\beta}),\qquad\qquad (1) $$ where…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-07-10 Shuaiwen Wang , Wenda Zhou , Haihao Lu , Arian Maleki , Vahab Mirrokni

Cross-validation (CV) is one of the most widely used techniques in statistical learning for estimating the test error of a model, but its behavior is not yet fully understood. It has been shown that standard confidence intervals for test…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-10 Min Woo Sun , Robert Tibshirani

The growing use of model-selection principles in ecology for statistical inference is underpinned by information criteria (IC) and cross-validation (CV) techniques. Although IC techniques, such as Akaike's Information Criterion, have been…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-10 Luke Yates , Zach Aandahl , Shane A. Richards , Barry W. Brook

Common cross-validation (CV) methods like k-fold cross-validation or Monte-Carlo cross-validation estimate the predictive performance of a learner by repeatedly training it on a large portion of the given data and testing on the remaining…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-30 Felix Mohr , Jan N. van Rijn

Cross-validation (CV) is one of the most popular tools for assessing and selecting predictive models. However, standard CV suffers from high computational cost when the number of folds is large. Recently, under the empirical risk…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-30 Yuetian Luo , Zhimei Ren , Rina Foygel Barber

In model selection, several types of cross-validation are commonly used and many variants have been introduced. While consistency of some of these methods has been proven, their rate of convergence to the oracle is generally still unknown.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-21 Guillaume Maillard

Evaluating models fit to data with internal spatial structure requires specific cross-validation (CV) approaches, because randomly selecting assessment data may produce assessment sets that are not truly independent of data used to train…

Computation · Statistics 2023-03-14 Michael J Mahoney , Lucas K Johnson , Julia Silge , Hannah Frick , Max Kuhn , Colin M Beier

Subject-exclusive cross-validation is the standard evaluation protocol for facial Action Unit (AU) detection, yet reported improvements are often small. We show that cross-validation itself introduces measurable stochastic variance. On…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-04-03 Saurabh Hinduja , Gurmeet Kaur , Maneesh Bilalpur , Jeffrey Cohn , Shaun Canavan

The Maximum Likelihood (ML) and Cross Validation (CV) methods for estimating covariance hyper-parameters are compared, in the context of Kriging with a misspecified covariance structure. A two-step approach is used. First, the case of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-06-03 François Bachoc

Despite ongoing theoretical research on cross-validation (CV), many theoretical questions remain widely open. This motivates our investigation into how properties of algorithm-distribution pairs can affect the choice for the number of folds…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-09 Ido Nachum , Rüdiger Urbanke , Thomas Weinberger

In this article, we derive concentration inequalities for the cross-validation estimate of the generalization error for stable predictors in the context of risk assessment. The notion of stability has been first introduced by \cite{DEWA79}…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2010-11-24 Matthieu Cornec

In many real-world applications, we are interested in approximating black-box, costly functions as accurately as possible with the smallest number of function evaluations. A complex computer code is an example of such a function. In this…

Computation · Statistics 2022-03-22 Hossein Mohammadi , Peter Challenor , Daniel Williamson , Marc Goodfellow

Probabilistic modelling of power systems operation and planning processes depends on data-driven methods, which require sufficiently large datasets. When historical data lacks this, it is desired to model the underlying data generation…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-26 Kutay Bölat , Simon H. Tindemans , Peter Palensky

Group number selection is a key problem for group panel data modeling. In this work, we develop a cross-validation (CV) method to tackle this problem. Specifically, we split the panel data into two data folds on the time span, with group…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-19 Zhe Li , Xuening Zhu , Changliang Zou

I develop an algorithm to produce the piecewise quadratic that computes leave-one-out cross-validation for the lasso as a function of its hyperparameter. The algorithm can be used to find exact hyperparameters that optimize leave-one-out…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-04 Ryan Burn

Given a high-dimensional covariate matrix and a response vector, ridge-regularized sparse linear regression selects a subset of features that explains the relationship between covariates and the response in an interpretable manner. To…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-13 Ryan Cory-Wright , Andrés Gómez

This paper investigates the efficiency of the K-fold cross-validation (CV) procedure and a debiased version thereof as a means of estimating the generalization risk of a learning algorithm. We work under the general assumption of uniform…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-06-13 Anass Aghbalou , François Portier , Anne Sabourin

Cross-validation (CV) is one of the main tools for performance estimation and parameter tuning in machine learning. The general recipe for computing CV estimate is to run a learning algorithm separately for each CV fold, a computationally…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-07-02 Pooria Joulani , András György , Csaba Szepesvári

Bayesian cross-validation (CV) is a popular method for predictive model assessment that is simple to implement and broadly applicable. A wide range of CV schemes is available for time series applications, including generic leave-one-out…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-12 Alex Cooper , Dan Simpson , Lauren Kennedy , Catherine Forbes , Aki Vehtari

Leave-one-problem-out (LOPO) performance prediction requires machine learning (ML) models to extrapolate algorithms' performance from a set of training problems to a previously unseen problem. LOPO is a very challenging task even for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-01 Ana Nikolikj , Michal Pluháček , Carola Doerr , Peter Korošec , Tome Eftimov