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We study the question of volume optimality in split conformal regression, a topic still poorly understood in comparison to coverage control. Using the fact that the calibration step can be seen as an empirical volume minimization problem,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-17 Batiste Le Bars , Pierre Humbert

This paper presents two results concerning uniform confidence intervals for the tail index and the extreme quantile. First, we show that it is impossible to construct a length-optimal confidence interval satisfying the correct uniform…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-10-25 Yuya Sasaki , Yulong Wang

This article is devoted to the study of tail index estimation based on i.i.d. multivariate observations, drawn from a standard heavy-tailed distribution, i.e. of which 1-d Pareto-like marginals share the same tail index. A multivariate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-04-10 Stéphan Clémençon , Antoine Dematteo

Modelling multivariate tail dependence is one of the key challenges in extreme-value theory. Multivariate extremes are usually characterized using parametric models, some of which have simpler submodels at the boundary of their parameter…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-17 Anna Kiriliouk

Consider $n$ i.i.d. random vectors on $\mathbb{R}^2$, with unknown, common distribution function $F$. Under a sharpening of the extreme value condition on $F$, we derive a weighted approximation of the corresponding tail copula process.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 John H. J. Einmahl , Laurens de Haan , Deyuan Li

Chebyshev's inequality provides an upper bound on the tail probability of a random variable based on its mean and variance. While tight, the inequality has been criticized for only being attained by pathological distributions that abuse the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-10-16 Ernst Roos , Ruud Brekelmans , Wouter van Eekelen , Dick den Hertog , Johan van Leeuwaarden

For time series data observed at non-random and possibly non-equidistant time points, we estimate the trend function nonparametrically. Under the assumption of a bounded total variation of the function and low-order moment conditions on the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-13 Michael H. Neumann , Anne Leucht

We show how methods from Hamiltonian Floer theory can be used to establish lower bounds for the number of different time-periodic measures of time-periodic Hamiltonian systems with diffusion. After proving the existence of closed random…

Symplectic Geometry · Mathematics 2023-08-10 Oliver Fabert

We study the volatility functional inference by Fourier transforms. This spectral framework is advantageous in that it harnesses the power of harmonic analysis to handle missing data and asynchronous observations without any artificial time…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-11-07 Richard Y. Chen

To ensure that real-world infrastructure is safe and durable, systems are designed to not fail for any but the most rarely occurring parameter values. By only happening deep in the tails of the parameter distribution, failure probabilities…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-27 Promit Chakroborty , Michael D. Shields

Computing accurate estimates of the Fourier transform of analog signals from discrete data points is important in many fields of science and engineering. The conventional approach of performing the discrete Fourier transform of the data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-12-08 Luca Ambrogioni , Eric Maris

We study the computational phase transition in a multi-frequency group synchronization problem, where pairwise relative measurements of group elements are observed across multiple frequency channels and corrupted by Gaussian noise. Using…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-29 Zhangsong Li

This article discusses modelling of the tail of a multivariate distribution function by means of a large deviation principle (LDP), and its application to the estimation of the probability of a multivariate extreme event from a sample of n…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-02-23 Cees de Valk

I propose a new procedure to estimate the False Alarm Probability, the measure of significance for peaks of periodograms. The key element of the new procedure is the use of generalized extreme-value distributions, the limiting distribution…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2012-12-05 M. Süveges

Estimating extreme quantiles is an important task in many applications, including financial risk management and climatology. More important than estimating the quantile itself is to insure zero coverage error, which implies the quantile…

Applications · Statistics 2025-05-08 Douglas E. Johnston

The analysis of signals created by a variety of instruments involves calculating the phase of a sinusoidal type signal. One widely used method to extract this information is through the use of Fourier transforms, but it is known that…

Optics · Physics 2018-11-02 Andrew John Henning , Dawei Tang , Xiangqian , Jiang

In this paper, we provide a general methodology to draw statistical inferences on individual signal coordinates or linear combinations of them in sparse phase retrieval. Given an initial estimator for the targeting parameter (some simple…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-29 Yisha Yao

We observe a large number of functions differing from each other only by a translation parameter. While the main pattern is unknown, we propose to estimate the shift parameters using $M$-estimators. Fourier transform enables to transform…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-12-18 Fabrice Gamboa , Jean-Michel Loubes , Elie Maza

This paper introduces the Trimmed Functional Empirical Process (TFEP) as a robust framework for statistical inference when dealing with heavy-tailed or skewed distributions, where classical moments such as the mean or variance may be…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-09 Abdoulaye Camara , Saliou Diouf , Moumouni Diallo , Gane Samb Lo

The short-time Fourier transform (STFT) represents a window of audio samples as a set of complex coefficients. These are advantageously viewed as magnitudes and phases and the overall distribution of phases is very often assumed to be…

Audio and Speech Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-09-16 Stephen D. Voran