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Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities.…

Applications · Statistics 2022-02-09 Fotios Petropoulos , Daniele Apiletti , Vassilios Assimakopoulos , Mohamed Zied Babai , Devon K. Barrow , Souhaib Ben Taieb , Christoph Bergmeir , Ricardo J. Bessa , Jakub Bijak , John E. Boylan , Jethro Browell , Claudio Carnevale , Jennifer L. Castle , Pasquale Cirillo , Michael P. Clements , Clara Cordeiro , Fernando Luiz Cyrino Oliveira , Shari De Baets , Alexander Dokumentov , Joanne Ellison , Piotr Fiszeder , Philip Hans Franses , David T. Frazier , Michael Gilliland , M. Sinan Gönül , Paul Goodwin , Luigi Grossi , Yael Grushka-Cockayne , Mariangela Guidolin , Massimo Guidolin , Ulrich Gunter , Xiaojia Guo , Renato Guseo , Nigel Harvey , David F. Hendry , Ross Hollyman , Tim Januschowski , Jooyoung Jeon , Victor Richmond R. Jose , Yanfei Kang , Anne B. Koehler , Stephan Kolassa , Nikolaos Kourentzes , Sonia Leva , Feng Li , Konstantia Litsiou , Spyros Makridakis , Gael M. Martin , Andrew B. Martinez , Sheik Meeran , Theodore Modis , Konstantinos Nikolopoulos , Dilek Önkal , Alessia Paccagnini , Anastasios Panagiotelis , Ioannis Panapakidis , Jose M. Pavía , Manuela Pedio , Diego J. Pedregal , Pierre Pinson , Patrícia Ramos , David E. Rapach , J. James Reade , Bahman Rostami-Tabar , Michał Rubaszek , Georgios Sermpinis , Han Lin Shang , Evangelos Spiliotis , Aris A. Syntetos , Priyanga Dilini Talagala , Thiyanga S. Talagala , Len Tashman , Dimitrios Thomakos , Thordis Thorarinsdottir , Ezio Todini , Juan Ramón Trapero Arenas , Xiaoqian Wang , Robert L. Winkler , Alisa Yusupova , Florian Ziel

A general framework is suggested to describe human decision making in a certain class of experiments performed in a trading laboratory. We are in particular interested in discerning between two different moods, or states of the investors,…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2013-06-11 Maxence Soumare , Jørgen Vitting Andersen , Francis Bouchard , Alain Elkaim , Dominique Guégan , Justin Leroux , Michel Miniconi , Lars Stentoft

The blockchain constitutes a technology-based, rather than social or regulation based, means to lower uncertainty about one another in order to exchange value. However, its use may very well also lead to increased complexity resulting from…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2018-01-09 Henry Kim , Marek Laskowski

Contract-based design is a promising methodology for taming the complexity of developing sophisticated systems. A formal contract distinguishes between assumptions, which are constraints that the designer of a component puts on the…

Formal Languages and Automata Theory · Computer Science 2020-05-11 Ezio Bartocci , Thomas Ferrère , Thomas A. Henzinger , Dejan Nickovic , Ana Oliveira da Costa

We introduce a basic model for contracts. Our model extends event structures with a new relation, which faithfully captures the circular dependencies among contract clauses. We establish whether an agreement exists which respects all the…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2013-02-27 Massimo Bartoletti , Tiziana Cimoli , G. Michele Pinna , Roberto Zunino

In this paper, we present a probabilistic adaptation of an Assume/Guarantee contract formalism. For the sake of generality, we assume that the extended state machines used in the contracts and implementations define sets of runs on a given…

Performance · Computer Science 2009-04-20 Benoît Delahaye , Benoît Caillaud

Game-theoretic interactions with AI agents could differ from traditional human-human interactions in various ways. One such difference is that it may be possible to simulate an AI agent (for example because its source code is known), which…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-03-21 Vojtech Kovarik , Caspar Oesterheld , Vincent Conitzer

Our approach is basically a coherence approach, but we avoid the well-known pitfalls of coherence theories of truth. Consistency is replaced by reliability, which expresses support and attack, and, in principle, every theory (or agent,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-04-03 Karl Schlechta

This paper proposes a belief-based framework for social norms in environments where individuals choose a single action. Relaxing the assumption that the appropriateness standard is common knowledge, the framework allows individuals to be…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-04-30 Senran Lin

Contract scheduling is a general technique that allows to design a system with interruptible capabilities, given an algorithm that is not necessarily interruptible. Previous work on this topic has largely assumed that the interruption is a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-11-26 Spyros Angelopoulos , Shahin Kamali

A contract is an economic tool used by a principal to incentivize one or more agents to exert effort on her behalf, by defining payments based on observable performance measures. A key challenge addressed by contracts -- known in economics…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-12-24 Paul Duetting , Michal Feldman , Inbal Talgam-Cohen

As technology become more advanced, those who design, use and are otherwise affected by it want to know that it will perform correctly, and understand why it does what it does, and how to use it appropriately. In essence they want to be…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2017-09-07 Brett W Israelsen

The process of doing Science in condition of uncertainty is illustrated with a toy experiment in which the inferential and the forecasting aspects are both present. The fundamental aspects of probabilistic reasoning, also relevant in real…

History and Overview · Mathematics 2018-02-07 Giulio D'Agostini

An approach is presented treating decision theory as a probabilistic theory based on quantum techniques. Accurate definitions are given and thorough analysis is accomplished for the quantum probabilities describing the choice between…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-06-06 V. I. Yukalov

Understanding physical phenomena is a key competence that enables humans and animals to act and interact under uncertain perception in previously unseen environments containing novel object and their configurations. Developmental psychology…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2016-04-04 Wenbin Li , Seyedmajid Azimi , Aleš Leonardis , Mario Fritz

We develop a framework for modelling and reasoning with uncertainty based on accept and reject statements about gambles. It generalises the frameworks found in the literature based on statements of acceptability, desirability, or…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-01-26 Erik Quaeghebeur , Gert de Cooman , Filip Hermans

This paper concentrates on the representation of the legal relations that obtain between parties once they have entered a contractual agreement and their evolution as the agreement progresses through time. Contracts are regarded as process…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-11-17 Aspassia Daskalopulu

We propose a game-theoretic framework that incorporates both incomplete information and general ambiguity attitudes on factors external to all players. Our starting point is players' preferences on payoff-distribution vectors, essentially…

Economics · Quantitative Finance 2017-04-04 Jian Yang

Understanding physical phenomena is a key competence that enables humans and animals to act and interact under uncertain perception in previously unseen environments containing novel objects and their configurations. Developmental…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2016-09-27 Wenbin Li , Aleš Leonardis , Mario Fritz

We present a first approximation of agent behaviour in a generalized model in contract theory. This model relaxes some of the the assumptions of one of the classical models allowing to include a broader range of agents. We introduce the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2011-07-15 Francisco Gutiérrez , Camilo Argoty , Stefany Moreno