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We use a simple machine learning model, logistically-weighted regularized linear least squares regression, in order to predict baseball, basketball, football, and hockey games. We do so using only the thirty-year record of which visiting…
Clearly-defined rules are often assumed to be straightforward to automate and evaluate. We challenge this assumption through an in-depth study of Major League Baseball's (MLB) seven-year experimentation with the Automated Ball-Strike System…
In the dynamic realm of One Day International (ODI) cricket, the sport has undergone significant transformations over the past four decades. This study digs into the intricate evolution of ODI cricket from 1987 to 2023, analyzing about 4000…
Many popular sports involve matches between two teams or players where each team have the possibility of scoring points throughout the match. While the overall match winner and result is interesting, it conveys little information about the…
The year 1953 is pivotal for computational physics: the first application of the Monte-Carlo method is published and calculations of the so-called Fermi-Pasta-Ulam-Tsingou experiment are started. It is the beginning of the massive use in…
The underlying physics of basketball shooting seems to be a straightforward example of the Newtonian mechanics that can easily be traced by numerical methods. However, a human basketball player does not make use of all the possible…
Monte Carlo methods are now an essential part of the statistician's toolbox, to the point of being more familiar to graduate students than the measure theoretic notions upon which they are based! We recall in this note some of the advances…
This paper introduces a Monte Carlo method for maximum likelihood inference in the context of discretely observed diffusion processes. The method gives unbiased and a.s.\@ continuous estimators of the likelihood function for a family of…
We present a quantitative analysis of throwing ability for major league outfielders and catchers. We use detailed game event data to tabulate success and failure events in outfielder and catcher throwing opportunities. We attribute a run…
A common problem faced in statistical inference is drawing conclusions from paired comparisons, in which two objects compete and one is declared the victor. A probabilistic approach to such a problem is the Bradley-Terry model, first…
The study of record statistics of correlated series is gaining momentum. In this work, we study the records statistics of the time series of select stock market data and the geometric random walk, primarily through simulations. We show that…
Score based approaches to sampling have shown much success as a generative algorithm to produce new samples from a target density given a pool of initial samples. In this work, we consider if we have no initial samples from the target…
We study the problem of generating a sample from the stationary distribution of a Markov chain, given a method to simulate the chain. We give an approximation algorithm for the case of a random walk on a regular graph with n vertices that…
In the sport of cricket, variations in a player's batting ability can usually be measured on one of two scales. Short-term changes in ability that are observed during a single innings, and long-term changes that are witnessed between…
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo has proven a remarkable empirical success, but only recently have we begun to develop a rigorous understanding of why it performs so well on difficult problems and how it is best applied in practice. Unfortunately,…
A Bayesian Survival Analysis method is motivated and developed for analysing sequences of scores made by a batsman in test or first class cricket. In particular, we expect the presence of an effect whereby the distribution of scores has…
Plate discipline is an important feature of a hitter's success. Hitter who are able to recognize good pitches to swing at and balls to take are generally recognized as disciplined hitters. Although there are some metrics that can provide…
In this paper we consider a stochastic process that may experience random reset events which bring suddenly the system to the starting value and analyze the relevant statistical magnitudes. We focus our attention on monotonous…
The pileup of planets at periods of roughly one year and beyond is actually a bimodal peak with a wide, sharp gap splitting the peak of the pileup in a major population of large planets. Consisting of nearly 40\% of planets with periods…
Statistical inference for discretely observed jump-diffusion processes is a complex problem which motivates new methodological challenges. Thus existing approaches invariably resort to time-discretisations which inevitably lead to…