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In this paper, we investigate the effectiveness of the home team bunting in extra innings of Major League Baseball games when the game is tied in the bottom of the inning. Using methods rooted in causal inference, we show that teams choose…
There is an increasing interest in estimating expectations outside of the classical inference framework, such as for models expressed as probabilistic programs. Many of these contexts call for some form of nested inference to be applied. In…
Hierarchical Bayesian inference is often conducted with estimates of the target distribution derived from Monte Carlo sums over samples from separate analyses of parts of the hierarchy or from mock observations used to estimate sensitivity…
We consider the classic infinite occupancy scheme, where balls are thrown in boxes independently, with probability $p_j$ of hitting box $j$. Each time a box receives its first ball we speak of a record and, more generally, call an…
We study time series concerning rare events. The occurrence of a rare event is depicted as a jump of constant intensity always occurring in the same direction, thereby generating an asymmetric diffusion process. We consider the case where…
The time interval between successive bursts from SGR 1806-20 and the intensity of these bursts are both consistent with lognormal distributions. Monte Carlo simulations of lognormal burst models with a range of distribution parameters have…
We investigate the time evolution of the scores of the second most popular sport in world: the game of cricket. By analyzing the scores event-by-event of more than two thousand matches, we point out that the score dynamics is an anomalous…
We review recent advances on the record statistics of strongly correlated time series, whose entries denote the positions of a random walk or a L\'evy flight on a line. After a brief survey of the theory of records for independent and…
Major League Baseball (MLB) recently limited pitchers to three pickoff attempts, creating a cat-and-mouse game between pitcher and runner. Each failed attempt adds pressure on the pitcher to avoid using another, and the runner can intensify…
Even though it might have taken some time, the three-point line ultimately changed the way the game is played as evidenced by the increase in the three-point shot attempts over the years. However, during the last few years we have…
Irreversible and rejection-free Monte Carlo methods, recently developed in Physics under the name Event-Chain and known in Statistics as Piecewise Deterministic Monte Carlo (PDMC), have proven to produce clear acceleration over standard…
This manuscript is a statistical investigation into the 2017 Major League Baseball scandal involving the Houston Astros, the World Series championship winner that same year. The Astros were alleged to have stolen their opponents' pitching…
Graphs with large spectral gap are important in various fields such as biology, sociology and computer science. In designing such graphs, an important question is how the probability of graphs with large spectral gap behaves. A method based…
In a recent article by Scafetta, 2010, the author investigates whether or not the decadal and multi-decadal climate oscillations have an astronomical origin. In particular, the author note that several global surface temperature records,…
We introduce five novel types of Monte Carlo (MC) moves that brings the number of moves of ensemble MC calculations from three to eight. So far such calculations have relied on affine invariant stretch moves that were originally introduced…
A typical experiment in high energy physics is considered. The result of the experiment is assumed to be a histogram consisting of bins or channels with numbers of corresponding registered events. The expected background and expected signal…
Each ballpark has a different size in baseball. It could be easily imagined that there would be many home runs in a small ballpark. Moreover, the environment of the ballpark, such as altitude, humidity, air pressure, and wind strength,…
Effects of randomness on the spin-1/2 and 1 antiferromagnetic Heisenberg chains are studied using the quantum Monte Carlo method with the continuous-time loop algorithm. We precisely calculated the uniform susceptibility, string order…
Standard measures of batting performance such as a batting average and an on-base percentage can be decomposed into component rates such as strikeout rates and home run rates. The likelihood of hitting data for a group of players can be…
In 1981 Jackson showed that the diregular bipartite tournament (a complete bipartite graph whose edges are oriented so that every vertex has the same in- and outdegree) contains a Hamilton cycle, and conjectured that in fact the edge set of…