Related papers: A Monte Carlo Approach to Joe DiMaggio and Streaks…
This brief paper describes the single-player card game called "Perpetual Motion" and reports on a computational analysis of the game's outcome. The analysis follows a Monte Carlo methodology based on a sample of 10,000 randomly generated…
The debate surrounding the hot hand in the NBA has been ongoing for many years. However, many of the previous works on this theme has focused on only the very next sequential shot attempt, often on very select players. This work looks in…
We present evidence, based on play-by-play data from all 6087 games from the 2006/07--2009/10 seasons of the National Basketball Association (NBA), that basketball scoring is well described by a weakly-biased continuous-time random walk.…
Basketball is often referred to as "a game of runs." We investigate the appropriateness of this claim using data from the full NBA 2016-17 season, comparing actual longest runs of scoring events to what long run theory predicts under the…
From its inception in the 1950s to the modern frontiers of applied statistics, Markov chain Monte Carlo has been one of the most ubiquitous and successful methods in statistical computing. In that time its development has been fueled by…
We use multivariate change point analysis methods, to identify not only mean shifts but also changes in variance across a wide array of statistical time series. Our primary objective is to empirically discern distinct eras in the evolution…
In 1946, S. Ulam invented Monte Carlo method, which has since become the standard numerical technique for making statistical predictions for long-term behaviour of dynamical systems. We show that this, or in fact any other numerical…
Since the advent of high-resolution pitch tracking data (PITCHf/x), many in the sabermetrics community have attempted to quantify a Major League Baseball catcher's ability to "frame" a pitch (i.e. increase the chance that a pitch is called…
Assessment of the performance of a player in any sport is very much needed to determine the ranking of players and make a solid team with the best players. Besides these, fans, journalists, sports persons, and sports councils often analyse…
From 2020 to 2023, Major League Baseball changed rules affecting team composition, player positioning, and game time. Understanding the effects of these rules is crucial for leagues, teams, players, and other relevant parties to assess…
We attempt to trace the history and development of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) from its early inception in the late 1940s through its use today. We see how the earlier stages of Monte Carlo (MC, not MCMC) research have led to the…
Baseball consists of two teams alternating between batting and fielding while competing to score runs through sequential pitching events. Recent advances in tracking technology have enabled all Major League Baseball (MLB) clubs to record…
Professional baseball players are increasingly guaranteed expensive long-term contracts, with over 70 deals signed in excess of \$90 million, mostly in the last decade. These are substantial sums compared to a typical franchise valuation of…
Streaks of success have always fascinated people and a lot of research has been conducted to identify whether the "hot hand" effect is real. While sports have provided an appropriate platform for studying this phenomenon, the majority of…
In most popular sports leagues, like the MLB, NBA, and NFL, none of the commonly used statistics take into account the strengths of the opponents a player faces. One of the main reasons for this is the conventional belief that a player's…
It was widely reported in the media that, on 23 May 2009, at the Borgata Hotel Casino & Spa in Atlantic City, Patricia DeMauro, playing craps for only the second time, rolled the dice for four hours and 18 minutes, finally sevening out at…
A new methodological framework suitable for era-adjusting baseball statistics is developed in this article. Within this methodological framework specific models are motivated. We call these models Full House Models. Full House Models work…
The infield shift has been increasingly used as a defensive strategy in baseball in recent years. Along with the upward trend in its usage, the notoriety of the shift has grown, as it is believed to be responsible for the recent decline in…
The hot streak, loosely defined as winning begets more winnings, highlights a specific period during which an individual's performance is substantially higher than her typical performance. While widely debated in sports, gambling, and…
Scoring in a basketball game is a process highly dynamic and non-linear type. The level of NBA teams improve each season. They incorporate to their rosters the best players in the world. These and other mechanisms, make the scoring in the…