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Related papers: Space-Time Earthquake Prediction: the Error Diagra…

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Models for forecasting earthquakes are currently tested prospectively in well-organized testing centers, using data collected after the models and their parameters are completely specified. The extent to which these models agree with the…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-12-23 Andrew Bray , Frederic Paik Schoenberg

Two novel methods, one that is experimental and the other comprising a pair of theoretical types (one component that is mathematically rigorous and the other that is of frequency domain computational type), are being used in concert to…

General Physics · Physics 2014-02-14 Randall D. Peters , Michael A. Phillips

Scaling analysis of seismicity in the space-time-magnitude domain very often starts from the relation N(m,L)=a(L)*10**(-bm)*L**c for the rate of seismic events of magnitude M>m in an area of size L. There is some evidence in favor of…

Geophysics · Physics 2009-11-11 G. Molchan , T. Kronrod

The average lifetime ($\tau(H)$) it takes for a randomly started trajectory to land in a small region ($H$) on a chaotic attractor is studied. $\tau(H)$ is an important issue for controlling chaos. We point out that if the region $H$ is…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2009-10-31 V. Paar , H. Buljan

Two algorithms are proposed to simulate space-time Gaussian random fields with a covariance function belonging to an extended Gneiting class, the definition of which depends on a completely monotone function associated with the spatial…

Computation · Statistics 2019-12-05 Denis Allard , Xavier Emery , Céline Lacaux , Christian Lantuéjoul

Trapped particles bursts have long been observed to be frequently occurred several hours before earthquakes, especially for strong earthquakes, from several space experiments during past decades. However, the validity of earthquake origin…

The ETAS model is widely employed to model the spatio-temporal distribution of earthquakes, generally using spatially invariant parameters. We propose an efficient method for the estimation of spatially varying parameters, using the…

Geophysics · Physics 2017-06-28 Shyam Nandan , Guy Ouillon , Stefan Wiemer , Didier Sornette

Based on the geodynamics, an earthquake does not take place until the momentum-energy excess a faulting threshold value of rock due to the movement of the fluid layer under the rock layer and the transport and accumulation of the momentum.…

General Physics · Physics 2008-02-05 Yi-Fang Chang

We consider two issues related to the 2011 Tohoku mega-earthquake: (1) what is the repeat time for the largest earthquakes in this area, and (2) what are the possibilities of numerical short-term forecasts during the 2011 earthquake…

Geophysics · Physics 2012-01-10 Yan Y. Kagan , David D. Jackson

This paper combines the power of deep-learning with the generalizability of physics-based features, to present an advanced method for seismic discrimination between earthquakes and explosions. The proposed method contains two branches: a…

Since long back, scientists have been putting enormous effort to understand earthquake dynamics -the goal is to develop a successful prediction scheme which can provide reliable alarm that an earthquake is imminent. Model studies sometimes…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-08-03 Srutarshi Pradhan

The two-fractal overlap model of earthquake shows that the contact area distribution of two fractal surfaces follows power law decay in many cases and this agrees with the Guttenberg-Richter power law. Here, we attempt to predict the large…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-09-29 Srutarshi Pradhan , Pinaki Choudhuri , Bikas K. Chakrabarti

To the foundation of a principally new short-term forecasting method there has been laid down a theory of surrounding us world's creation and of physical vacuum as a result of interaction of byuons - discrete objects. The definition of the…

Here we suggest a new procedure through which one can identify when the accumulation of stresses before major earthquakes (EQs) (of magnitude M 8.2 or larger) occurs. By analyzing the seismicity in the frame of natural time, which is a new…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-02-15 Panayiotis A. Varotsos , Nicholas V. Sarlis , Toshiyasu Nagao

Earthquake phenomenology exhibits a number of power law distributions including the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-size statistics and the Omori law for aftershock decay rates. In search for a basic model that renders correct predictions on…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2009-11-11 Amit P. Mehta , Karin A. Dahmen , Yehuda Ben-Zion

Without a model, it is impossible for a geophysicist to study the possibility of forecasting earth quakes. We will define a quantity, the event-degree, in the paper. This quantity plays an important role in the model of quakes forecasting.…

Geophysics · Physics 2008-07-16 Yeong-Shyeong Tsai

The statistics of recurrence times in broad areas have been reported to obey universal scaling laws, both for single homogeneous regions (Corral, 2003) and when averaged over multiple regions (Bak et al.,2002). These unified scaling laws…

Geophysics · Physics 2007-12-04 A. Saichev , D. Sornette

This article is concerned with obtaining the standard tau function descriptions of integrable equations (in particular, here the KdV and Ernst equations are considered) from the geometry of their twistor correspondences. In particular, we…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2009-11-07 L. J. Mason , M. A. Singer , N. M. J. Woodhouse

The distribution of seismic moment is of capital interest to evaluate earthquake hazard, in particular regarding the most extreme events. We make use of likelihood-ratio tests to compare the simple Gutenberg-Richter power-law distribution…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-09-07 Isabel Serra , Álvaro Corral

Spatiotemporal properties of seismicity are investigated for a worldwide (WW) catalog and for Southern California in the stationary case (SC), showing a nearly universal scaling behavior. Distributions of distances between consecutive…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-11 Alvaro Corral