Related papers: Space-Time Earthquake Prediction: the Error Diagra…
Earthquakes are major hazards to humans, buildings and infrastructure. Early warning methods aim to provide advance notice of incoming strong shaking to enable preventive action and mitigate seismic risk. Their usefulness depends on…
Over the past decades much effort has been devoted towards understanding and forecasting natural hazards. However, earthquake forecasting skill is still very limited and remains a great scientific challenge. The limited earthquake…
This report presents a preliminary analysis of an LSTM neural network designed to predict the accuracy of magnitude estimates computed by Early-est during the first minutes after an earthquake occurs.
We review previous approaches to nowcasting earthquakes and introduce new approaches based on deep learning using three distinct models based on recurrent neural networks and transformers. We discuss different choices for observables and…
Frequency-magnitude distributions, and their associated uncertainties, are of key importance in statistical seismology. When fitting these distributions, the assumption of Gaussian residuals is invalid since event numbers are both discrete…
Advances in data acquisition and numerical wave simulation have improved tomographic imaging techniques and results, but non-experts may find it difficult to understand which model is best for their needs. This paper is intended for these…
The optimal scaling problem for the time t(LxL) between two successive events in a seismogenic cell of size L is considered. The quantity t(LxL) is defined for a random cell of a grid covering a seismic region G. We solve that problem in…
Recent studies in the literature have introduced a new approach to earthquake forecasting based on representing the space-time patterns of localized seismicity by a time-dependent system state vector in a real-valued Hilbert space and…
It is shown that earthquakes do not know how large they will become, at least from the information collected at seismic catalogs. In other words, the magnitude is independent on previous magnitudes as well as on the waiting time between…
We have developed a model that describes the major characteristics of a rupture, ranging from regular earthquakes (EQs) to slow slip events (SSEs), including episodic tremor and slip (ETS). Previous model predictions, while accurate, are…
We report on a novel stochastic analysis of seismic time series for the Earth's vertical velocity, by using methods originally developed for complex hierarchical systems, and in particular for turbulent flows. Analysis of the fluctuations…
We propose two methods to calibrate the parameters of the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model based on expectation maximization (EM) while accounting for temporal variation of catalog completeness. The first method allows for…
Spatio-temporal correlations of earthquakes are studied numerically on the basis of the one-dimensional spring-block (Burridge-Knopoff) model. As large events approach, the frequency of smaller events gradually increases, while, just before…
Seismicity and faulting within the Earth crust are characterized by many scaling laws that are usually interpreted as qualifying the existence of underlying physical mechanisms associated with some kind of criticality in the sense of phase…
Seismic risk estimates will be vastly improved with an increased understanding of historical (and pre-historical) seismic events. However the only existing data for these events is anecdotal and sparse. To address this we developed a…
In both thermodynamics and quantum mechanics the arrow of time is characterized by the statistical likelihood of physical processes. We characterize this arrow of time for the continuous quantum measurement dynamics of a superconducting…
We review the present status of our research and understanding regarding the dynamics and the statistical properties of earthquakes, mainly from a statistical physical viewpoint. Emphasis is put both on the physics of friction and fracture,…
We present an overview of our ongoing studies of the rich dynamical behavior of the uniform, deterministic Burridge--Knopoff model of an earthquake fault. We discuss the behavior of the model in the context of current questions in…
Short and long range interactions between earthquakes are attracting increasing interest. Scale invariant properties of seismicity in time, space and energy argue for the presence of complex triggering mechanisms where, like a cascade…
The most significant periodicities in the terrestrial impact crater record are due to the human-signal: the bias of assigning integer values for the crater ages. This bias seems to have eluded the proponents and opponents of real…