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Related papers: Space-Time Earthquake Prediction: the Error Diagra…

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We consider deterministic chaotic models of vacuum fluctuations on a small (quantum gravity) scale. As a suitable small-scale dynamics, nonlinear versions of strings, so-called `chaotic strings' are introduced. These can be used to provide…

High Energy Physics - Theory · Physics 2016-11-23 Christian Beck

Earthquakes, as natural phenomena, have continuously caused damage and loss of human life historically. Earthquake prediction is an essential aspect of any society's plans and can increase public preparedness and reduce damage to a great…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Parisa Kavianpour , Mohammadreza Kavianpour , Ehsan Jahani , Amin Ramezani

Forecasts of the focal mechanisms of future earthquakes are important for seismic hazard estimates and Coulomb stress and other models of earthquake occurrence. Here we report on a high-resolution global forecast of earthquake rate density…

Geophysics · Physics 2015-06-17 Yan Y. Kagan , David D. Jackson

If gravity were an emergent phenomenon, some relativistic as well as non-relativistic speculations claim it is, then a certain emergence time scale tau_? would characterize it. We argue that the available experimental evidences have poor…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2014-11-19 Lajos Diósi

I sketch what it is supposed to mean to quantize gauge theory, and how this can be made more concrete in perturbation theory and also by starting with a finite-dimensional lattice approximation. Based on real experiments and computer…

Differential Geometry · Mathematics 2009-01-03 Edward Witten

Quantum theory (QT) provides statistical predictions for various physical phenomena. The outcomes of these measurements are in general some numerical time series registered by some macroscopic instruments. The various empirical probability…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2015-05-13 Marian Kupczynski

Our understanding of earthquakes is based on the theory of plate tectonics. Earthquake dynamics is the study of the interactions of plates (solid disjoint parts of the lithosphere) which produce seismic activity. Over the last about fifty…

Geophysics · Physics 2009-06-11 Pathikrit Bhattacharya , Bikas K. Chakrabarti , Kamal , Debashis Samanta

Foreshock events provide valuable insight to predict imminent major earthquakes. However, it is difficult to identify them in real time. In this paper, I propose an algorithm based on deep learning to instantaneously classify a seismic…

Geophysics · Physics 2016-11-29 K. Vikraman

The paper is a first attempt for statistical estimation of method for a short time prediction of incoming earthquake in the Balkan and Black Sea region from January to June, 2002. The essence of the discovery is that the geomagnetic local…

Geophysics · Physics 2007-05-23 S. Cht. Mavrodiev

Recent satellite and ground-based observations proved that in earthquake preparation period in the seismogenic area we have VLF/LF and ULF electromagnetic emissions. According to the opinion of the authors of the present paper this…

Geophysics · Physics 2013-08-19 Manana Kachakhidze , Nino Kachakhidze

Although our existing one-dimensional (1D) model provides a successful quantitative description of rupture events, a 1D description is somewhat limited. We therefore derive a two-dimensional (2D) model which allows us to investigate…

Geophysics · Physics 2021-12-20 Naum I. Gershenzon , Thomas Skinner

For earthquake-resistant design, engineering seismologists employ time-history analysis for nonlinear simulations. The nonstationary stochastic method previously developed by Pousse et al. (2006) has been updated. This method has the…

Applications · Statistics 2012-12-18 Aurore Laurendeau , Fabrice Cotton , Luis Fabian Bonilla

Time series are characterized by complex memory and/or distribution patterns. In this letter we show that models obeying to different statistics may equally reproduce some pattern of a time series. In particular we discuss the difference…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-10 Nicola Scafetta , Bruce J. West

Accurate damage prediction is crucial for disaster preparedness and response strategies, particularly given the frequent earthquakes in Turkey. Utilizing datasets on earthquake data, infrastructural quality metrics, and contemporary…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-11-15 Shrey Shah , Alex Lin , Scott Lin , Josh Patel , Michael Lam , Kevin Zhu

We show how a recently introduced statistics [Patil et al, Phys. Rev. Lett. 81 5878 (2001)] provides a direct relationship between dimension and predictability in spatiotemporal chaotic systems. Regions of low dimension are identified as…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2007-05-23 Gerson Francisco , Paulsamy Muruganandam

We describe the quantum mechanical spreading of a Gaussian wave packet by means of the semiclassical WKB approximation of Berry and Balazs. We find that the time scale $\tau$ on which this approximation breaks down in a chaotic system is…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2007-05-23 P. G. Silvestrov , C. W. J. Beenakker

The Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) model and its variants effectively capture the space-time clustering of seismicity, setting the standard for earthquake forecasting. Accurate unbiased ETAS calibration is thus crucial. But we…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-06-23 Jiawei Li , Didier Sornette , Zhongliang Wu , Jiancang Zhuang , Changsheng Jiang

We construct a one-dimensional piecewise linear intermittent map from the interevent time distribution for a given renewal process. Then, we characterize intermittency by the asymptotic behavior near the indifferent fixed point in the…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2015-05-13 Takuma Akimoto , Tomohiro Hasumi , Yoji Aizawa

We report an empirical determination of the probability density functions P(r) of the number r of earthquakes in finite space-time windows for the California catalog, over fixed spatial boxes 5 x 5 km^2 and time intervals dt =1, 10, 100 and…

Geophysics · Physics 2007-05-23 A. Saichev , D. Sornette

The upper bound earthquake magnitude (maximum possible magnitude) of a truncated Gutenberg-Richter relation is the right truncation point (right end-point) of a truncated exponential distribution and is important in the probabilistic…

Geophysics · Physics 2018-07-30 Mathias Raschke