Related papers: Space-Time Earthquake Prediction: the Error Diagra…
We consider deterministic chaotic models of vacuum fluctuations on a small (quantum gravity) scale. As a suitable small-scale dynamics, nonlinear versions of strings, so-called `chaotic strings' are introduced. These can be used to provide…
Earthquakes, as natural phenomena, have continuously caused damage and loss of human life historically. Earthquake prediction is an essential aspect of any society's plans and can increase public preparedness and reduce damage to a great…
Forecasts of the focal mechanisms of future earthquakes are important for seismic hazard estimates and Coulomb stress and other models of earthquake occurrence. Here we report on a high-resolution global forecast of earthquake rate density…
If gravity were an emergent phenomenon, some relativistic as well as non-relativistic speculations claim it is, then a certain emergence time scale tau_? would characterize it. We argue that the available experimental evidences have poor…
I sketch what it is supposed to mean to quantize gauge theory, and how this can be made more concrete in perturbation theory and also by starting with a finite-dimensional lattice approximation. Based on real experiments and computer…
Quantum theory (QT) provides statistical predictions for various physical phenomena. The outcomes of these measurements are in general some numerical time series registered by some macroscopic instruments. The various empirical probability…
Our understanding of earthquakes is based on the theory of plate tectonics. Earthquake dynamics is the study of the interactions of plates (solid disjoint parts of the lithosphere) which produce seismic activity. Over the last about fifty…
Foreshock events provide valuable insight to predict imminent major earthquakes. However, it is difficult to identify them in real time. In this paper, I propose an algorithm based on deep learning to instantaneously classify a seismic…
The paper is a first attempt for statistical estimation of method for a short time prediction of incoming earthquake in the Balkan and Black Sea region from January to June, 2002. The essence of the discovery is that the geomagnetic local…
Recent satellite and ground-based observations proved that in earthquake preparation period in the seismogenic area we have VLF/LF and ULF electromagnetic emissions. According to the opinion of the authors of the present paper this…
Although our existing one-dimensional (1D) model provides a successful quantitative description of rupture events, a 1D description is somewhat limited. We therefore derive a two-dimensional (2D) model which allows us to investigate…
For earthquake-resistant design, engineering seismologists employ time-history analysis for nonlinear simulations. The nonstationary stochastic method previously developed by Pousse et al. (2006) has been updated. This method has the…
Time series are characterized by complex memory and/or distribution patterns. In this letter we show that models obeying to different statistics may equally reproduce some pattern of a time series. In particular we discuss the difference…
Accurate damage prediction is crucial for disaster preparedness and response strategies, particularly given the frequent earthquakes in Turkey. Utilizing datasets on earthquake data, infrastructural quality metrics, and contemporary…
We show how a recently introduced statistics [Patil et al, Phys. Rev. Lett. 81 5878 (2001)] provides a direct relationship between dimension and predictability in spatiotemporal chaotic systems. Regions of low dimension are identified as…
We describe the quantum mechanical spreading of a Gaussian wave packet by means of the semiclassical WKB approximation of Berry and Balazs. We find that the time scale $\tau$ on which this approximation breaks down in a chaotic system is…
The Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) model and its variants effectively capture the space-time clustering of seismicity, setting the standard for earthquake forecasting. Accurate unbiased ETAS calibration is thus crucial. But we…
We construct a one-dimensional piecewise linear intermittent map from the interevent time distribution for a given renewal process. Then, we characterize intermittency by the asymptotic behavior near the indifferent fixed point in the…
We report an empirical determination of the probability density functions P(r) of the number r of earthquakes in finite space-time windows for the California catalog, over fixed spatial boxes 5 x 5 km^2 and time intervals dt =1, 10, 100 and…
The upper bound earthquake magnitude (maximum possible magnitude) of a truncated Gutenberg-Richter relation is the right truncation point (right end-point) of a truncated exponential distribution and is important in the probabilistic…