Related papers: Market dynamics after large financial crash
The occurrence of aftershocks following a major financial crash manifests the critical dynamical response of financial markets. Aftershocks put additional stress on markets, with conceivable dramatic consequences. Such a phenomenon has been…
In this paper we provide a comprehensive analysis of a structural model for the dynamics of prices of assets traded in a market originally proposed in [1]. The model takes the form of an interacting generalization of the geometric Brownian…
We discuss the statistical properties of index returns in a financial market just after a major market crash. The observed non-stationary behavior of index returns is characterized in terms of the exceedances over a given threshold. This…
This paper deals with an extension of the so-called Black-Scholes model in which the volatility is modeled by a linear combination of the components of the solution of a differential equation driven by a fractional Brownian motion of Hurst…
The most common stochastic volatility models such as the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU), the Heston, the exponential OU (ExpOU) and Hull-White models define volatility as a Markovian process. In this work we check of the applicability of the…
We present an interacting-agent model of speculative activity explaining bubbles and crashes in stock markets. We describe stock markets through an infinite-range Ising model to formulate the tendency of traders getting influenced by the…
Fractional Brownian motion has become a standard tool to address long-range dependence in financial time series. However, a constant memory parameter is too restrictive to address different market conditions. Here we model the price…
The market events of 2007-2009 have reinvigorated the search for realistic return models that capture greater likelihoods of extreme movements. In this paper we model the medium-term log-return dynamics in a market with both fundamental and…
We obtain a lower asymptotic bound on the decay rate of the probability of a portfolio's underperformance against a benchmark over a large time horizon. It is assumed that the prices of the securities are governed by geometric Brownian…
We analyze the problem of the analytical characterization of the probability distribution of financial returns in the exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model with stochastic volatility. In this model the prices are driven by a Geometric…
We show that financial correlations exhibit a non-trivial dynamic behavior. We introduce a simple phenomenological model of a multi-asset financial market, which takes into account the impact of portfolio investment on price dynamics. This…
We present a model of financial markets originally proposed for a turbulent flow, as a dynamic basis of its intermittent behavior. Time evolution of the price change is assumed to be described by Brownian motion in a power-law potential,…
Using a modified damped harmonic oscillator model equivalent to a model of market dynamics with price expectations, we analyze the reaction of financial markets to shocks. In order to do this, we gather data from indices of a variety of…
We generalise the description of the dynamics of the order book of financial markets in terms of a Brownian particle embedded in a fluid of incoming, exiting and annihilating particles by presenting a model of the velocity on each side (buy…
Many studies assume stock prices follow a random process known as geometric Brownian motion. Although approximately correct, this model fails to explain the frequent occurrence of extreme price movements, such as stock market crashes. Using…
A first attempt at obtaining market--directional information from a non--stationary solution of the dynamic equation "future price tends to the value that maximizes the number of shares traded per unit time" [1] is presented. We demonstrate…
Quasi-equilibrium models for aggregate variables are widely-used throughout finance and economics. The validity of such models depends crucially upon assuming that the systems' participants behave both independently and in a Markovian…
Stylized facts can be regarded as constraints for any modeling attempt of price dynamics on a financial market, in that an empirically reasonable model has to reproduce these stylized facts at least qualitatively. The dynamics of market…
We study the cascading dynamics immediately before and immediately after 219 market shocks. We define the time of a market shock T_{c} to be the time for which the market volatility V(T_{c}) has a peak that exceeds a predetermined…
This paper explores the mechanisms behind extreme financial events, specifically market crashes, by employing the theoretical framework of phase transitions. We focus on endogenous crashes, driven by internal market dynamics, and model…