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This paper extends earlier work by Cox and Durrett, who studied the coalescence times for two lineages in the stepping stone model on the two-dimensional torus. We show that the genealogy of a sample of size n is given by a time change of…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Iljana Zahle , J. Theodore Cox , Richard Durrett

A density-dependent branching process is a particle system in which individuals reproduce independently, but in a way that depends on the current population size. This feature can model a wide range of ecological interactions at the cost of…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-23 Mathilde André , Félix Foutel-Rodier , Emmanuel Schertzer

The inference of the evolutionary history of a collection of organisms is a problem of fundamental importance in evolutionary biology. The abundance of DNA sequence data arising from genome sequencing projects has led to significant…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-07-07 Julia Chifman , Laura Kubatko

In this paper, we review recent results of ours concerning branching processes with general lifetimes and neutral mutations, under the infinitely many alleles model, where mutations can occur either at birth of individuals or at a constant…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-11-29 Nicolas Champagnat , Amaury Lambert , Mathieu Richard

We consider a class of density-dependent branching processes which generalises exponential, logistic and Gompertz growth. A population begins with a single individual, grows exponentially initially, and then growth may slow down as the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-04-11 David Cheek

We consider a population constituted by two types of individuals; each of them can produce offspring in two different islands (as a particular case the islands can be interpreted as active or dormant individuals). We model the evolution of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-04-01 María Emilia Caballero , Adrián González Casanova , José Luis Pérez

In this article, we focus on Bienaym\'e-Galton-Watson processes with linear-fractional offspring distributions. At a fixed generation, we consider a sample of the individuals alive, drawn in two different ways: either through Bernoulli…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-06-24 Natalia Cardona-Tobón , Sandra Palau

Consider a birth and death process started from one individual in which each individual gives birth at rate $\lambda$ and dies at rate $\mu$, so that the population size grows at rate $r = \lambda - \mu$. Lambert and Harris, Johnston, and…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-04-28 Jason Schweinsberg , Yubo Shuai

We present a robust method which translates information on the speed of coming down from infinity of a genealogical tree into sampling formulae for the underlying population. We apply these results to population dynamics where the genealogy…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-02-01 Julien Berestycki , Nathanael Berestycki , Vlada Limic

Consider a haploid population which has evolved through an exchangeable reproduction dynamics, and in which all individuals alive at time $t$ have a most recent common ancestor (MRCA) who lived at time $A_t$, say. As time goes on, not only…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 P. Pfaffelhuber , A. Wakolbinger

In this paper we study a class of stochastic individual-based models that describe the evolution of haploid populations where each individual is characterised by a phenotype and a genotype. The phenotype of an individual determines its…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-08-07 Martina Baar , Anton Bovier

We derive the asymptotic distribution of the total length $L_n$ of a $\operatorname {Beta}(2-\alpha,\alpha)$-coalescent tree for $1<\alpha<2$, starting from $n$ individuals. There are two regimes: If $\alpha\le1/2(1+\sqrt{5})$, then $L_n$…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-10-22 Götz Kersting

In mathematical population genetics, it is well known that one can represent the genealogy of a population by a tree, which indicates how the ancestral lines of individuals in the population coalesce as they are traced back in time. As the…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-02-20 Götz Kersting , Jason Schweinsberg , Anton Wakolbinger

Consider a supercritical birth and death process where the children acquire mutations. We study the mutation rates along the ancestral lineages in a sample of size $n$ from the population at time $T$. The mutation rate is time-inhomogenous…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-02-27 Yubo Shuai

We consider a model of a population of fixed size $N$ undergoing selection. Each individual acquires beneficial mutations at rate $\mu_N$, and each beneficial mutation increases the individual's fitness by $s_N$. Each individual dies at…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-07-03 Jason Schweinsberg

This paper gives a new flavor of what Peter Jagers and his co-authors call `the path to extinction'. In a neutral population with constant size $N$, we assume that each individual at time $0$ carries a distinct type, or allele. We consider…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-14 Guillaume Achaz , Amaury Lambert , Emmanuel Schertzer

Take a continuous-time Galton-Watson tree. If the system survives until a large time $T$, then choose $k$ particles uniformly from those alive. What does the ancestral tree drawn out by these $k$ particles look like? Some special cases are…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-02-14 Simon C. Harris , Samuel G. G. Johnston , Matthew I. Roberts

Consider a population evolving as a discrete-time supercritical multi-type Galton--Watson process. Suppose we run the process for $T$ generations, then sample $k$ individuals uniformly at generation $T$ and trace their genealogy backwards…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-13 Janique Krasnowska , Paul Jenkins , Adam Johansen

Stochastic models of sequential mutation acquisition are widely used to quantify cancer and bacterial evolution. Across manifold scenarios, recurrent research questions are: how many cells are there with $n$ alterations, and how long will…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-07-07 Michael D. Nicholson , David Cheek , Tibor Antal

When an advantageous mutation occurs in a population, the favorable allele may spread to the entire population in a short time, an event known as a selective sweep. As a result, when we sample $n$ individuals from a population and trace…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Rick Durrett , Jason Schweinsberg