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To answer the questions of whether global warming is accelerating and when the 1.5{\deg}C Paris Agreement target will be exceeded, the global mean surface temperature from 1880 to 2025 is first examined using a purely graphical approach and…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-14 Erhard Reschenhofer

We use continuous wavelet tools to characterize the dynamics of climate change across time and frequencies. This approach allows us to capture the changing patterns in the relationship between global mean temperature anomalies and climate…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-09-29 Luis Aguiar-Conraria , Vasco J. Gabriel , Luis F. Martins , Anthoulla Phella

Monthly streamflow records from a set of gauging stations, selected to form a reference hydrologic network, are analyzed together with precipitation and temperature data to establish whether the streamflows in the Guadalquivir River Basin…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-08-19 Patricio Yeste , Javier Dorador , Wenceslao Martín-Rosales , Emilio Molero , María Jesús Esteban Parra

We show that the climate phenomena of El Nino and La Nina arise naturally as states of macro-variables when our recent causal feature learning framework (Chalupka 2015, Chalupka 2016) is applied to micro-level measures of zonal wind (ZW)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-05-31 Krzysztof Chalupka , Tobias Bischoff , Pietro Perona , Frederick Eberhardt

Earthquake faults occur in networks that have dynamical modes not displayed by single isolated faults. Using simulations of the network of strike-slip faults in southern California, we find that the physics depends critically on both the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-07 Paul B. Rundle , John B. Rundle , Kristy F. Tiampo , Jorge S. Sa Martins , Seth McGinnis , W. Klein

Climate change is an important current issue and there is much debate about the causes and effects. This article examines the changes in our climate, comparing the recent changes with those in the past. There have been changes in…

General Physics · Physics 2008-06-23 L. Padget , J. Dunning-Davies

Climate change results in altered air and water temperatures. Increases affect physicochemical properties, such as oxygen concentration, and can shift species distribution and survival, with consequences for ecosystem functioning and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-11 Stefanie Mohr , Konstantina Drainas , Juergen Geist

The economic impacts of climate change are highly uncertain. Two of the most important uncertainties are the sensitivity of the climate system and the so-called damage functions, which relate climate change to economic damages and benefits.…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-08-24 Jenny Bjordal , Trude Storelvmo , Anthony A. Smith

Climate change is a reality of today. Paleoclimatic proxies and climate predictions based on coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models provide us with temperature data. Using Detrended Fluctuation Analysis, we are investigating…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2008-03-05 Bora Akgun , Zeynep Isvan , Levent Tuter , Mehmet Levent Kurnaz

In this work we investigate time varying networks with complex dynamics at the nodes. We consider two scenarios of network change in an interval of time: first, we have the case where each link can change with probability pt, i.e. the…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2014-04-14 Ankit Kumar , Vidit Agrawal , Sudeshna Sinha

El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a prominent mode of interannual climate variability with far-reaching global impacts. Its evolution is governed by intricate air-sea interactions, posing significant challenges for long-term…

Arctic sea-ice loss is a defining feature of climate change and offers insight into its impact on mid-latitude air quality. Here, we investigate how variability in Arctic sea-ice extent (ASI) affects ground-level ozone ($O_3$) across…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-05-01 K Shuvo Bakar , Sourish Das , Sudeep Shukla , Anirban Chakraborti

A comprehensive characterization of internal climate variability and irreducible uncertainty through initial-condition large ensembles of Earth system models across different spatiotemporal scales remains a significant challenge in climate…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-01-28 Arnob Ray , Abhirup Banerjee , Rachindra Mawalagedara , Auroop R. Ganguly

El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most prominent interannual climate variability in the tropics and exhibits diverse features in spatiotemporal patterns. In this paper, a simple multiscale intermediate coupled stochastic model is…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-06-15 Nan Chen , Xianghui Fang

Based on nonlinear prediction and information theory, vertical heterogeneity of predictability and information loss rate was obtained over the Northern Hemisphere. In seasonal to interannual time scales, the predictability is low in lower…

Geophysics · Physics 2011-05-05 A. X. Feng , Z. Q. Gong , Q. G. Wang , G. L. Feng

We revisit a recent claim that the Earth's climate system is characterized by sensitive dependence to parameters; in particular, that the system exhibits an asymmetric, large-amplitude response to normally distributed feedback forcing. Such…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2011-01-13 Ilya Zaliapin , Michael Ghil

In this study we used the sea surface temperature (SST), El-Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) time-series for the time period 1900-2012 in order to investigate plausible manifestation of sharp increases…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2013-03-08 Belolipetsky P. V. , Bartsev S. I. , Degermendzhi A. G. , Huang-Hsiung Hsu , Varotsos C. A.

The skill of current predictions of the warm phase of the El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) reduces significantly beyond a lag of six months. In this paper, we aim to increase this prediction skill at lags up to one year. The new method…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2018-08-15 Peter D. Nooteboom , Qing Yi Feng , Cristóbal López , Emilio Hernández-García , Henk A. Dijkstra

Coastal regions have a high social, economical and environmental importance. Due to this importance the sea level fluctuations can have many bad consequences. In this research the correlation between the increasing trend of temperature in…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2014-06-24 Reza Ardakanian , Seyed Hamed Alemohammad

Atmosphere and ocean are coupled via air-sea interactions. The atmospheric conditions fuel the ocean circulation and its variability, but the extent to which ocean processes can affect the atmosphere at decadal time scales remains unclear.…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-07-08 Navid C. Constantinou , Andrew McC. Hogg