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The global atmospheric temperature anomalies of Earth reached a maximum in 1998 which has not been exceeded during the subsequent 10 years. The global anomalies are calculated from the average of climate effects occurring in the tropical…

Geophysics · Physics 2008-09-04 David H. Douglass , John R. Christy

The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest driver of year-to-year variations of the global climate and can lead to extreme weather conditions and disasters in various regions around the world. Here, we review two different…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-01-26 J. Ludescher , J. Meng , J. Fan , A. Bunde , H. J. Schellnhuber

The effects of El Ni\~no's two distinct flavors, East Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP)/Modoki El Ni\~no, on global climate variability have been studied intensively in recent years. Most of these studies have made use of linear…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-01-11 Marc Wiedermann , Jonatan F. Siegmund , Jonathan F. Donges , Reik V. Donner

Extreme weather events, rare yet profoundly impactful, are often accompanied by severe conditions. Increasing global temperatures are poised to exacerbate these events, resulting in greater human casualties, economic losses, and ecological…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-04-17 Yuhao Feng , Jun Meng , Jingfang Fan

We study the dynamics of the El Nino phenomenon using the mathematical model of delayed-action oscillator (DAO). Topics such as the influence of the annual cycle, global warming, stochastic influences due to weather conditions and even…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 Ian Boutle , Richard H. S. Taylor , Rudolf A. Roemer

I present new evidence of the effects of climate shocks on conflict. Focusing on political violence in Africa, I find that El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shocks during the crop-growing season affect harvest-related conflict in…

General Economics · Economics 2025-11-05 David Ubilava

While most spatial data can be modeled with the assumption that distant points are uncorrelated, some problems require dependence at both far and short distances. We introduce a model to directly incorporate dependence in phenomena that…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-04 Joshua Hewitt , Jennifer A. Hoeting , James Done , Erin Towler

Ecological networks exhibit non-random structural patterns, such as modularity and nestedness, which indicate ecosystem stability, species diversity, and connectance. Such structure-stability relationships are well known. However, another…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2014-06-12 Kazuhiro Takemoto , Saori Kanamaru , Wenfeng Feng

The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important driver of climate variability and can trigger extreme weather events and disasters in various parts of the globe. Recently we have developed a network approach, which allows…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-02-19 Josef Ludescher , Armin Bunde , Shlomo Havlin , Hans Joachim Schellnhuber

The Atacama desert stands as the most arid, non-polar, region on Earth and has accommodated a considerable portion of the world's ground-based astronomical observatories for an extended period. The comprehension of factors important for…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2023-09-27 Julia Victoria Seidel , Angel Otarola , Valentina Théron

The El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a fluctuation in sea surface temperature (SST) and pressure across the equatorial Pacific Ocean with a period of 2-7 years. As the largest mode of interannual variability on Earth, ENSO shapes…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-05 PJ Tuckman , Da Yang

Complex networks have been used intensively to investigate the flow and dynamics of many natural systems including the climate system. Here, we develop a percolation based measure, the order parameter, to study and quantify climate…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2017-02-24 Jun Meng , Jingfang Fan , Yosef Ashkenazy , Shlomo Havlin

Evaluating the magnitude of natural climate variations is important because it can greatly affect future climate policies. As an example, we examine the influence of changes in solar activity (solar wind in particular) on surface…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2018-07-12 Kiminori Itoh , Shinya Matsuo , Hiroshi Serizawa , Kazuyoshi Yamashita , Takashi Amemiya

Different definitions of links in climate networks may lead to considerably different network topologies. We construct a network from climate records of surface level atmospheric temperature in different geographical sites around the globe…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2015-06-22 Oded C. Guez , Avi Gozolchiani , Shlomo Havlin

Anomalies during an El Nino are dominated by a single, irregularly oscillating, mode. Equatorial dynamics has been linked to delayed-oscillator models of this mode. Usually, the El Nino mode is regarded as an unstable mode of the coupled…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2008-02-03 Gerrit Burgers

Tropical monsoons play a critical role in shaping regional and global climate systems, with profound ecological and socio-economic impacts. However, their long-term prediction remains challenging due to the complex interplay of regional…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-02-24 Guanghao Ran , Jun Meng , Jingfang Fan

Global climate warming poses a significant challenge to humanity; it is associated with, e.g., rising sea level and declining Arctic sea ice. Increasing extreme events are also considered to be a result of climate…

Physics and Society · Physics 2019-01-23 Jingfang Fan , Jun Meng , Yosef Ashkenazy , Shlomo Havlin , Hans Joachim Schellnhuber

Skillful seasonal prediction of lightning is crucial over several global hotspot regions, as it causes severe damages to infrastructures and losses of human life. While major emphasis has been given for predicting rainfall, prediction of…

The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the Earth's strongest climate fluctuation on inter-annual time-scales and has global impacts although originating in the tropical Pacific. Many point indices have been developed to describe ENSO…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2012-06-27 A. Mazzarella , A. Giuliacci , N. Scafetta

It is shown that, the wavelet regression detrended fluctuations of the monthly global temperature data (land and ocean combined) for the period 1880-2009yy, are completely dominated by one-third subharmonic resonance to annual forcing (both…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2010-02-16 A. Bershadskii