Related papers: PGA Tour Scores as a Gaussian Random Variable
Originally devised for baseball, the Pythagorean Won-Loss formula estimates the percentage of games a team should have won at a particular point in a season. For decades, this formula had no mathematical justification. In 2006, Steven…
Let $X=\{X(x): x\in\mathbb{S}^N\}$ be a real-valued, centered Gaussian random field indexed on the $N$-dimensional unit sphere $\mathbb{S}^N$. Approximations to the excursion probability ${\mathbb{P}}\{\sup_{x\in\mathbb{S}^N}X(x)\ge u\}$,…
We consider the manipulability of tournament rules for round-robin tournaments of $n$ competitors. Specifically, $n$ competitors are competing for a prize, and a tournament rule $r$ maps the result of all $\binom{n}{2}$ pairwise matches…
One of the main benchmarks in direct numerical simulations of three-dimensional turbulence is the Kolmogorov 1941 prediction for third-order structure functions with homogeneous and isotropic statistics in the infinite-Reynolds number…
The probability current statistics of two-dimensional open chaotic ballistic billiards is studied both analytically and numerically. Assuming that the real and imaginary parts of the scattering wave function are both random Gaussian fields,…
The patterns of motion of mobile agents has received recently wide attention in the literature. There is a number of recent studies centered around the motion behavior of many agents ranging from albatrosses to human beings. Special…
Quantitative measures of randomness in games are useful for game design and have implications for gambling law. We treat the outcome of a game as a random variable and derive a closed-form expression and estimator for the variance in the…
There seems to be an upper limit to predicting the outcome of matches in (semi-)professional sports. Recent work has proposed that this is due to chance and attempts have been made to simulate the distribution of win percentages to identify…
Dynamic behavior of traffic adversely affect the performance of the prediction models in intelligent transportation applications. This study applies Gaussian processes (GPs) to traffic speed prediction. Such predictions can be used by…
For a number of researchers a number of publications for each author is simulated using the zeta distribution and then for each publication a number of citations per publication simulated. Bootstrap confidence intervals indicate that the…
The increase in the collection of biological data allows for the individual and longitudinal monitoring of hematological or urine biomarkers. However, identifying abnormal behavior in these biological sequences is not trivial. Moreover, the…
Traditional NBA player evaluation metrics are based on scoring differential or some pace-adjusted linear combination of box score statistics like points, rebounds, assists, etc. These measures treat performances with the outcome of the game…
Multiplicative cascades have been used in turbulence to generate fields with multifractal statistics and long-range correlations. Examples of continuous and causal stochastic processes which generate such a random field have been carefully…
We consider two-person sports where each rally is initiated by a \emph{server}, the other player (the \emph{receiver}) becoming the server when he/she wins a rally. Historically, these sports used a scoring based on the \emph{side-out…
In this paper, we consider a classic problem concerning the high excursion probabilities of a Gaussian random field $f$ living on a compact set $T$. We develop efficient computational methods for the tail probabilities $P(\sup_T f(t) > b)$…
We consider a random walk on the fully-connected lattice with $N$ sites and study the time evolution of the number of distinct sites $s$ visited by the walker on a subset with $n$ sites. A record value $v$ is obtained for $s$ at a record…
We introduce an approach for analyzing the responses of dynamical systems to external perturbations that combines score-based generative modeling with the Generalized Fluctuation-Dissipation Theorem (GFDT). The methodology enables accurate…
Consider the family of power divergence statistics based on $n$ trials, each leading to one of $r$ possible outcomes. This includes the log-likelihood ratio and Pearson's statistic as important special cases. It is known that in certain…
Many biological processes display oscillatory behavior based on an approximately 24 hour internal timing system specific to each individual. One process of particular interest is gene expression, for which several circadian transcriptomic…
We introduce a three-step framework to determine at which pitches Major League batters should swing. Unlike traditional plate discipline metrics, which implicitly assume that all batters should always swing at (resp. take) pitches inside…