Related papers: PGA Tour Scores as a Gaussian Random Variable
A class of discrete probability distributions contains distributions with limited support, i.e. possible argument values are limited to a set of numbers (typically consecutive). Examples of such data are results from subjective experiments…
We find a remarkable agreement between the statistics of a randomly divided interval and the observed statistical patterns and distributions found in horse racing betting markets. We compare the distribution of implied winning odds, the…
We use the concept of excursions for the prediction of random variables without any moment existence assumptions. To do so, an excursion metric on the space of random variables is defined which appears to be a kind of a weighted…
We tackle the extension to the vector-valued case of consistency results for Stepwise Uncertainty Reduction sequential experimental design strategies established in [Bect et al., A supermartingale approach to Gaussian process based…
We tasked GPT-4.1 to read what baseball fans wrote about their game-day experience and predict the overall experience rating each fan gave on a 0-10 survey scale. The model received only the text of a single open-ended response. These AI…
Scoring rules are widely used to rank athletes in sports and candidates in elections. Each position in each individual ranking is worth a certain number of points; the total sum of points determines the aggregate ranking. The question is…
Pairwise Markov Random Fields (MRFs) or undirected graphical models are parsimonious representations of joint probability distributions. Variables correspond to nodes of a graph, with edges between nodes corresponding to conditional…
Basketball shot charts provide valuable information regarding local patterns of in-game performance to coaches, players, sports analysts, and statisticians. The spatial patterns of where shots were attempted and whether the shots were…
The sub-Gaussian stable distribution is a heavy-tailed elliptically contoured law which has interesting applications in signal processing and financial mathematics. This work addresses the problem of feasible estimation of distributions. We…
The phenomenology of turbulent relative dispersion is revisited. A heuristic scenario is proposed, in which pairs of tracers undergo a succession of independent ballistic separations during time intervals whose lengths fluctuate. This…
We investigate how price variations of a stock are transformed into profits and losses (P&Ls) of a trend following strategy. In the frame of a Gaussian model, we derive the probability distribution of P&Ls and analyze its moments (mean,…
We find an exact formula for the number of directed 5-cycles in a tournament in terms of its edge score sequence. We use this formula to find both upper and lower bounds on the number of 5-cycles in any $n$-tournament. In particular, we…
We introduce a new measure to capture fairness of a schedule in a single round robin (SRR) tournament when participants are ranked by strength. To prevent distortion of the outcome of an SRR tournament as well as to guarantee equal…
This paper explores the concept of "momentum" in sports competitions through the use of the TOPSIS model and 0-1 logistic regression model. First, the TOPSIS model is employed to evaluate the performance of two tennis players, with…
In a recurrent events setting, we introduce a new score designed to evaluate the prediction ability, for a given model, of the expected cumulative number of recurrent events. This score allows to take into account the individual history of…
This paper presents an in-depth statistical analysis of an experiment designed to measure the extent to which players in a simple game behave according to a popular behavioral economic model. The p-beauty contest is a multi-player number…
Event counts are response variables with non-negative integer values representing the number of times that an event occurs within a fixed domain such as a time interval, a geographical area or a cell of a contingency table. Analysis of…
In the 2023 Wimbledon Gentlemen's final, Carlos Alcaraz defeated Novak Djokovic. This study aims to predict athletes' performance through five key aspects: first, a mul-ti-classification model based on logistic regression was established,…
It has been noted that in many professional sports leagues a good predictor of a team's won-loss percentage is Bill James' Pythagorean Formula RSobs^c / (RSobs^c + RAobs^c), where RSobs (resp. RAobs) is the observed average number of runs…
This project aims to assess the performance of various regression models in predicting the performance of hockey players. The measure of performance is chosen to be points scored (sum of goals scored and assists made) by individual players…