Related papers: PGA Tour Scores as a Gaussian Random Variable
We study a stochastic process that mimics single-game elimination tournaments. In our model, the outcome of each match is stochastic: the weaker player wins with upset probability q<=1/2, and the stronger player wins with probability 1-q.…
Let $G$ be a Dirac graph, and let $S$ be a vertex subset of $G$, chosen uniformly at random. How likely is the induced subgraph $G[S]$ to be Hamiltonian? This question, proposed by Erd\H{o}s and Faudree in 1996, was recently resolved by…
Tournament solutions are standard tools for identifying winners based on pairwise comparisons between competing alternatives. The recently studied notion of margin of victory (MoV) offers a general method for refining the winner set of any…
We introduce a particle model, that we call the $\textit{golf model}$. Initially, on a graph $G$, balls and holes are placed at random on some distinct vertices. The balls then move one by one, doing a random walk on $G$, starting from…
Kernel-based machine learning approaches are gaining increasing interest for exploring and modeling large dataset in recent years. Gaussian process (GP) is one example of such kernel-based approaches, which can provide very good performance…
A continuous-time random walk in the quarter plane with homogeneous transition rates is considered. Given a non-negative reward function on the state space, we are interested in the expected stationary performance. Since a direct derivation…
The volume of stroke lesion is the gold standard for predicting the clinical outcome of stroke patients. However, the presence of stroke lesion may cause neural disruptions to other brain regions, and these potentially damaged regions may…
Probability forecasts of events are routinely used in climate predictions, in forecasting default probabilities on bank loans or in estimating the probability of a patient's positive response to treatment. Scoring rules have long been used…
Tournaments can be used to model a variety of practical scenarios including sports competitions and elections. A natural notion of strength of alternatives in a tournament is a generalized king: an alternative is said to be a $k$-king if it…
In this manuscript, we concentrate on a specific type of covariates, which we call statistically enhanced, for modeling tennis matches for men at Grand slam tournaments. Our goal is to assess whether these enhanced covariates have the…
Autonomous racing creates challenging control problems, but Model Predictive Control (MPC) has made promising steps toward solving both the minimum lap-time problem and head-to-head racing. Yet, accurate models of the system are necessary…
We present here two examples of stochastic modelings of social phenomena. The first topic is pedestrian counter flow. Two groups of model pedestrians move in opposite directions and create congestions. It will be shown that this congestion…
A Gaussian process is proposed as a model for the posterior distribution of the local predictive ability of a model or expert, conditional on a vector of covariates, from historical predictions in the form of log predictive scores. Assuming…
We present a method for comparing point forecasts in a region of interest, such as the tails or centre of a variable's range. This method cannot be hedged, in contrast to conditionally selecting events to evaluate and then using a scoring…
We study the hole probability of Gaussian entire functions. More specifically, we work with entire functions in Taylor series form with i.i.d complex Gaussian random variables and arbitrary non-random coefficients. A hole is the event where…
The main objective of this paper is to investigate the extent to which the margin of victory can be predicted solely by the rankings of the opposing teams in NCAA Division I men's basketball games. Several past studies have modeled this…
In this paper we obtain the expectation and variance of the number of Euler tours of a random Eulerian directed graph with fixed out-degree sequence. We use this to obtain the asymptotic distribution of the number of Euler tours of a random…
Our data are random fields of multivariate Gaussian observations, and we fit a multivariate linear model with common design matrix at each point. We are interested in detecting those points where some of the coefficients are nonzero using…
Any collection can be ranked. Sports and games are common examples of ranked systems: players and teams are constantly ranked using different methods. The statistical properties of rankings have been studied for almost a century in a…
We study the relationship between tournaments and random walks. This connection was first observed by Erd\H{o}s and Moser. Winston and Kleitman came close to showing that $S_n=\Theta(4^n/n^{5/2})$. Building on this, and works by Tak\'acs,…