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We design the first polynomial time approximation schemes (PTASs) for the Minimum Betweenness problem in tournaments and some related higher arity ranking problems. This settles the approximation status of the Betweenness problem in…
An evacuation process is simulated within the Social Force Model. Thousand pedestrians are leaving a room by one exit. We investigate the stationarity of the distribution of time lags between instants when two successive pedestrians cross…
Consider a symmetric aperiodic random walk in $Z^d$, $d\geq 3$. There are points (called heavy points) where the number of visits by the random walk is close to its maximum. We investigate the local times around these heavy points and show…
Real-time probability forecasts for binary outcomes are routine in sports, online experimentation, medicine, and finance. Retrospective narratives, however, often hinge on pathwise extremes: for example, a forecast that becomes "90%…
It is part of our daily social-media experience that seemingly ordinary items (videos, news, publications, etc.) unexpectedly gain an enormous amount of attention. Here we investigate how unexpected these events are. We propose a method…
It is argued that the newly introduced moments of rapidity gaps for the event-by-event fluctuations depends on the number of events and multiplicity. The interesting ones of them are unstable under ISR energies of h-h collisions. The…
Bayesian statistics has two common measures of central tendency of a posterior distribution: posterior means and Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) estimates. In this paper, we discuss a connection between MAP estimates and posterior means. We…
Every crowd counting researcher has likely observed their model output wrong positive predictions on image regions not containing any person. But how often do these mistakes happen? Are our models negatively affected by this? In this paper…
We study the problem of matching agents who arrive at a marketplace over time and leave after d time periods. Agents can only be matched while they are present in the marketplace. Each pair of agents can yield a different match value, and…
Contrary to common belief, both the Earth's human population and its economic output have grown faster than exponential, i.e., in a super-Malthusian mode, for most of the known history. These growth rates are compatible with a spontaneous…
We study the factorised steady state of a general class of mass transport models in which mass, a conserved quantity, is transferred stochastically between sites. Condensation in such models is exhibited when above a critical mass density…
This paper considers the problem of inference after ranking. In our setting, we are interested in any population whose rank according to some random quantity, such as an estimated treatment effect, a measure of value-added, or benefit (net…
In this work the results of a bottleneck experiment with pedestrians are presented in the form of total times, fluxes, specific fluxes, and time gaps. A main aim was to find the dependence of these values from the bottleneck width. The…
We follow the time sequence of binary elastic collisions in a small collection of hard-core particles. Intervals between the collisions are characterized by the numbers of collisions of different pairs in a given time. It was shown…
Quantities with right-skewed distributions are ubiquitous in complex social systems, including political conflict, economics and social networks, and these systems sometimes produce extremely large events. For instance, the 9/11 terrorist…
Finding upper limits on the rate of events from a proposed process in the presence of unknown backgrounds is an often encountered problem in the search for rare processes. Methods based on unusually large "gaps", or spacings, in the event…
Two models of a queue are proposed: a human queue and two lines of vehicles before a narrowing. In both models, a queuer tries to evaluate his waiting time, taking into account the delay caused by intruders who jump to the queue front. As…
There seems to be an upper limit to predicting the outcome of matches in (semi-)professional sports. Recent work has proposed that this is due to chance and attempts have been made to simulate the distribution of win percentages to identify…
Density dependent Markov population processes with countably many types can often be well approximated over finite time intervals by the solution of the differential equations that describe their average drift, provided that the total…
We study the distribution of the 'gap time', the first time that a large gap appears, in the spatial birth and death point process on $[0,1]$ in which particles are added uniformly in space at rate $\lambda$ and are removed independently at…