English

Matching prior pairs connecting Maximum A Posteriori estimation and posterior expectation

Statistics Theory 2024-10-02 v2 Statistics Theory

Abstract

Bayesian statistics has two common measures of central tendency of a posterior distribution: posterior means and Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) estimates. In this paper, we discuss a connection between MAP estimates and posterior means. We derive an asymptotic condition for a pair of prior densities under which the posterior mean based on one prior coincides with the MAP estimate based on the other prior. A sufficient condition for the existence of this prior pair relates to α\alpha-flatness of the statistical model in information geometry. We also construct a matching prior pair using α\alpha-parallel priors. Our result elucidates an interesting connection between regularization in generalized linear regression models and posterior expectation.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2312.09586,
  title  = {Matching prior pairs connecting Maximum A Posteriori estimation and posterior expectation},
  author = {Michiko Okudo and Keisuke Yano},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2312.09586},
  year   = {2024}
}