Related papers: Earthquake Prediction: Probabilistic Aspect
Earthquakes are one of the most devastating natural disasters that plague society. A skilled, reliable earthquake forecasting remains the ultimate goal for seismologists. Using the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and conditional…
In the last few years, deep learning has solved seemingly intractable problems, boosting the hope to find approximate solutions to problems that now are considered unsolvable. Earthquake prediction, the Grail of Seismology, is, in this…
Predictions and forecasts of machine learning models should take the form of probability distributions, aiming to increase the quantity of information communicated to end users. Although applications of probabilistic prediction and…
The local when earthquake prediction is based on the connection between geomagnetic quakes and the next incoming minimum or maximum of tidal gravitational potential. The probability time window for the predicted earthquake is for the tidal…
We propose a simple theory for the ``universal'' scaling law previously reported for the distributions of waiting times between earthquakes. It is based on a largely used benchmark model of seismicity, which just assumes no difference in…
In this paper, we describe a representation for spatial information, called the stochastic map, and associated procedures for building it, reading information from it, and revising it incrementally as new information is obtained. The map…
An attempt to construct a phenomenological theory of earthquakes is being undertaken by a small research team, which includes the author. We have only taken the first steps towards goal, but the results already obtained convincingly…
The impact of including postcursors in the null hypothesis test is discussed. Unequal prediction probabilities can be included in the null hypothesis test using a generalization of the central limit theorem. A test for determining the…
Optimization under uncertainty deals with the problem of optimizing stochastic cost functions given some partial information on their inputs. These problems are extremely difficult to solve and yet pervade all areas of technological and…
Load forecasts have become an integral part of energy security. Due to the various influencing factors that can be considered in such a forecast, there is also a wide range of models that attempt to integrate these parameters into a system…
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities.…
With the advancement of GPS and remote sensing technologies, large amounts of geospatial and spatiotemporal data are being collected from various domains, driving the need for effective and efficient prediction methods. Given spatial data…
This paper focuses on the problem of anticipating the local occurrence of future large earthquakes. "Local" is defined as the probability of a large earthquake occurring with a defined circle of arbitrary radius surrounding a point of…
A new forecasting strategy for stochastic systems is introduced. It is inspired by the concept of anticipated synchronization between pairs of chaotic oscillators, recently developed in the area of Dynamical Systems, and by the earthquake…
This paper is devoted to show the advantages of introducing a geometric viewpoint and a non extensive formulation in the description of apparently unrelated phenomena: combustion and earthquakes. Here, it is shown how the introduction of a…
Special relativity is most naturally formulated as a theory of space-time geometry, but within the space-time framework probability apears to be at best an epistemic notion - a matter of what can be known, not of the status of events in…
It is often the case that risk assessment and prognostics are viewed as related but separate tasks. This chapter describes a risk-based approach to prognostics that seeks to provide a tighter coupling between risk assessment and fault…
Spatiotemporal clustering of earthquake events is a generally-established fact, and is important for designing models and assessment techniques in seismicity. Here, we investigate how this behavior can manifest in the statistical…
The principal goal of this paper is to pass all quantum probability formulas to the projective space associated to the complex Hilbert space of a given quantum system, providing a more complete geometrization of quantum theory. Quantum…
Probability forecasts of events are routinely used in climate predictions, in forecasting default probabilities on bank loans or in estimating the probability of a patient's positive response to treatment. Scoring rules have long been used…