Related papers: Long-range epidemic spreading with immunization
We study a susceptible-vaccinated--infected--recovered (SVIR) epidemic-spreading model with diversity of infection rate of the individuals. By means of analytical arguments as well as extensive computer simulations, we demonstrate that the…
Dengue virus transmission models commonly assume an exponential distribution for the mosquito extrinsic incubation period (EIP), potentially oversimplifying biological variability. We developed a stochastic mechanistic dengue transmission…
We model an epidemic where the per-person infectiousness in a network of geographic localities changes with the total number of active cases. This would happen as people adopt more stringent non-pharmaceutical precautions when the…
We consider the contact process with infection rate $\lambda$ on a random $(d+1)$-regular graph with $n$ vertices, $G_n$. We study the extinction time $\tau_{G_n}$ (that is, the random amount of time until the infection disappears) as $n$…
Infectious diseases outbreaks are often characterized by a spatial component induced by hosts' distribution, mobility, and interactions. Spatial models that incorporate hosts' movements are being used to describe these processes, to…
Human to human transmissible infectious diseases spread in a population using human interactions as its transmission vector. The early stages of such an outbreak can be modeled by a graph whose edges encode these interactions between…
We are interested in the spread of an epidemic between two communities that have higher connectivity within than between them. We model the two communities as independent Erdos-Renyi random graphs, each with n vertices and edge probability…
In a metapopulation network, infectious diseases spread widely because of the travel of individuals. In the present study, we consider a modified metapopulation Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model with a latent period, which we call…
We analyze infection spreading processes in a system where only a fraction $p$ of individuals can be affected by disease, while remaining $1-p$ individuals are immune. Such a picture can emerge as a natural consequence of previously…
DNA denaturation, wetting in two dimensions, depinning of a flux line, and other problems map onto a phase transition with effective long range interaction. It yields giant non-universal critical indexes, arbitrarily large macroscopic…
In the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model of disease spreading, the time to extinction of the epidemics happens at an intermediate value of the per-contact transmission probability. Too contagious infections burn out fast in the…
We study dynamics of spread of epidemics of SIR type in a realistic spatially-explicit geographical region, Southern and Central Ontario, using census data obtained from Statistics Canada, and examine the role of population mixing in…
Forecasting disease spread is a critical tool to help public health officials design and plan public health interventions. However, the expected future state of an epidemic is not necessarily well defined as disease spread is inherently…
A theory of the spread of epidemics is formulated on the basis of pairwise interactions in a dilute system of random walkers (infected and susceptible animals) moving in n dimensions. The motion of an animal pair is taken to obey a…
Working in the multi-type Galton-Watson branching-process framework we analyse the spread of a pandemic via a general multi-type random contact graph. Our model consists of several communities, and takes, as input, parameters that outline…
We investigate the role of global mixing in epidemic processes. We first construct a simplified model of the SIR epidemic using a realistic population distribution. Using this model, we examine possible mechanisms for destruction of spatial…
We study the critical effect of an intermittent social distancing strategy on the propagation of epidemics in adaptive complex networks. We characterize the effect of our strategy in the framework of the susceptible-infected-recovered…
Here we treat the transmission of disease through a population as a standard Galton-Watson branching process, modified to take the presence of vaccination into account. Vaccination reduces the number of secondary infections produced per…
We present an analysis of six deterministic models for epidemic spreading. The evolution of the number of individuals of each class is given by ordinary differential equations of the first order in time, which are set up by using the laws…
This article introduces epidemia, an R package for Bayesian, regression-oriented modeling of infectious diseases. The implemented models define a likelihood for all observed data while also explicitly modeling transmission dynamics: an…