Related papers: Imprecise Markov chains and their limit behaviour
We establish convergence to an invariant measure as time tends to infinity, for a large class of (possibly non-Markovian) stochastic volatility models. Our arguments are based on a novel coupling idea for Markov chains which also extends to…
Even simply-defined, finite-state generators produce stochastic processes that require tracking an uncountable infinity of probabilistic features for optimal prediction. For processes generated by hidden Markov chains the consequences are…
We consider the Markov chain approximations for singular stable-like processes. First we obtain properties of some Markov chains. Then we construct the approximating Markov chains and give a necessary condition for weak convergence of these…
Markov chain model is widely applied in many fields, especially the field of prediction. The classical Discrete-time Markov chain(DTMC) is a widely used method for prediction. However, the classical DTMC model has some limitation when the…
Predictive constructions are a powerful way of characterizing the probability law of stochastic processes with certain forms of invariance, such as exchangeability or Markov exchangeability. When de Finetti-like representation theorems are…
Modeling the time evolution of discrete sets of items (e.g., genetic mutations) is a fundamental problem in many biomedical applications. We approach this problem through the lens of continuous-time Markov chains, and show that the…
In this paper, we first introduce and define several new information divergences in the space of transition matrices of finite Markov chains which measure the discrepancy between two Markov chains. These divergences offer natural…
Labeled continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) describe processes subject to random timing and partial observability. In applications such as runtime monitoring, we must incorporate past observations. The timing of these observations matters…
We consider a simple discrete-time Markov chain with values in $[0,\infty)^{Z^d}$. The Markov chain describes various interesting examples such as oriented percolation, directed polymers in random environment, time discretizations of binary…
We consider the problem of statistical inference in a parametric finite Markov chain model and develop a robust estimator of the parameters defining the transition probabilities via minimization of a suitable (empirical) version of the…
In this paper we develop a statistical estimation technique to recover the transition kernel $P$ of a Markov chain $X=(X_m)_{m \in \mathbb N}$ in presence of censored data. We consider the situation where only a sub-sequence of $X$ is…
Multi-state models are frequently applied for representing processes evolving through a discrete set of state. Important classes of multi-state models arise when transitions between states may depend on the time since entry into the current…
The concepts of probability, statistics and stochastic theory are being successfully used in structural engineering. Markov Chain modelling is a simple stochastic process model that has found its application in both describing stochastic…
We consider discrete-time Markov bridges, chains whose initial and final states coincide. We derive exact finite-time formulae for the joint probability distributions of additive functionals of trajectories. We apply our theory to…
The paper studies a probabilistic notion of causes in Markov chains that relies on the counterfactuality principle and the probability-raising property. This notion is motivated by the use of causes for monitoring purposes where the aim is…
For a network of discrete states with a periodically driven Markovian dynamics, we develop an inference scheme for an external observer who has access to some transitions. Based on waiting-time distributions between these transitions, the…
We develop a martingale approximation approach to studying the limiting behavior of quadratic forms of Markov chains. We use the technique to examine the asymptotic behavior of lag-window estimators in time series and we apply the results…
We introduce the concept of an imprecise Markov semigroup \(\mathbf Q\). It is a tool that allows us to represent ambiguity around both the transition probabilities and the invariant measure of a continuous-time Markov process via a…
Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms play a key role in the Bayesian approach to phylogenetic inference. In this paper, we present the first theoretical work analyzing the rate of convergence of several Markov chains widely used in…
We establish the weak large deviations principle for empirical measures of Markov chains on $\mathbb R^d$ under mild assumptions. In particular, no irreducibility is assumed and the initial measure may be arbitrary. The proof is entirely…