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Related papers: Imprecise Markov chains and their limit behaviour

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We study inhomogeneous continuous-time weakly ergodic Markov chains with a finite state space. We introduce the notion of a Markov chain with the regular structure of an infinitesimal matrix and study the sharp upper bounds on the rate of…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-02-17 A. I. Zeifman , Y. A. Satin , K. M. Kiseleva

We consider continuous-space, discrete-time Markov chains on $\mathbb{R}^d$, that admit a finite number $N$ of metastable states. Our main motivation for investigating these processes is to analyse random Poincar\'e maps, which describe…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-19 Nils Berglund

This paper presents a novel theoretical Monte Carlo Markov chain procedure in the framework of graphs. It specifically deals with the construction of a Markov chain whose empirical distribution converges to a given reference one. The Markov…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-02 Roy Cerqueti , Emilio De Santis

Probabilistic model checking for systems with large or unbounded state space is a challenging computational problem in formal modelling and its applications. Numerical algorithms require an explicit representation of the state space, while…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2018-06-12 Dimitrios Milios , Guido Sanguinetti , David Schnoerr

Markov chains are fundamental models for stochastic dynamics, with applications in a wide range of areas such as population dynamics, queueing systems, reinforcement learning, and Monte Carlo methods. Estimating the transition matrix and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-26 Lasse Leskelä , Maximilien Dreveton

A general theory is developed to study individual based models which are discrete in time. We begin by constructing a Markov chain model that converges to a one-dimensional map in the infinite population limit. Stochastic fluctuations are…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-06-03 Joseph D. Challenger , Duccio Fanelli , Alan J. McKane

By proving a local limit theorem for higher-order transitions, we determine the time required for necklace chains to be close to stationarity. Because necklace chains, built by arranging identical smaller chains around a directed cycle, are…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-11-22 Elizabeth L. Wilmer

We give a closed form of the discrete-time evolution of a recombination transformation in population genetics. This decomposition allows to define a Markov chain in a natural way. We describe the geometric decay rate to the limit…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-03-24 Servet Martinez

Consider longitudinal networks whose edges turn on and off according to a discrete-time Markov chain with exponential-family transition probabilities. We characterize when their joint distributions are also exponential families with the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-12 William K. Schwartz , Sonja Petrović , Hemanshu Kaul

We present a novel algorithm to solve a non-linear system of equations, whose solution can be interpreted as a tight lower bound on the vector of expected hitting times of a Markov chain whose transition probabilities are only partially…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-03-30 Thomas Krak

We propose a method to approximate continuous-time, continuous-state stochastic processes by a discrete-time Markov chain defined on a nonuniform grid. Our method provides exact moment matching for processes whose first and second moments…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-27 Do Hyun Kim , Ahmet Cetinkaya

Estimating the transition dynamics of controlled Markov chains is crucial in fields such as time series analysis, reinforcement learning, and system exploration. Traditional non-parametric density estimation methods often assume independent…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-21 Imon Banerjee , Vinayak Rao , Harsha Honnappa

The asymptotic variance is an important criterion to evaluate the performance of Markov chains, especially for the central limit theorems. We give the variational formulas for the asymptotic variance of discrete-time (non-reversible) Markov…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-29 Lu-Jing Huang , Yong-Hua Mao

We consider a family of measure preserving transformations, which act on a common probability space and are chosen at random by a stationary ergodic Markov chain. This setting defines an instance of a random dynamical system (RDS), which…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-02-27 Pablo Lummerzheim , Felix Pogorzelski , Elias Zimmermann

The extremal behaviour of a Markov chain is typically characterized by its tail chain. For asymptotically dependent Markov chains existing formulations fail to capture the full evolution of the extreme event when the chain moves out of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-04-07 Ioannis Papastathopoulos , Kirstin Strokorb , Jonathan A. Tawn , Adam Butler

We describe an exact approach for calculating transition probabilities and waiting times in finite-state discrete-time Markov processes. All the states and the rules for transitions between them must be known in advance. We can then…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-11-11 Semen A. Trygubenko , David J. Wales

A discrete-time Markov chain can be transformed into a new Markov chain by looking at its states along iterations of an almost surely finite stopping time. By the optional stopping theorem, any bounded harmonic function with respect to the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-05-04 Iddo Ben-Ari , Behrang Forghani

We consider continuous-time Markov chain on a finite state space X. We assume X can be clustered into several subsets such that the intra-transition rates within these subsets are of order $\mathcal{O}(\frac{1}{\epsilon})$ comparing to the…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-01-28 Wei Zhang

We establish general theorems quantifying the notion of recurrence --- through an estimation of the moments of passage times --- for irreducible continuous-time Markov chains on countably infinite state spaces. Sharp conditions of…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-07-15 Mikhail Menshikov , Dimitri Petritis

We present a new algorithm for the statistical model checking of Markov chains with respect to unbounded temporal properties, such as reachability and full linear temporal logic. The main idea is that we monitor each simulation run on the…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2016-03-04 Przemysław Daca , Thomas A. Henzinger , Jan Křetínský , Tatjana Petrov