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We consider a continuous-time model for inventory management with Markov modulated non-stationary demands. We introduce active learning by assuming that the state of the world is unobserved and must be inferred by the manager. We also…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2012-06-28 Erhan Bayraktar , Mike Ludkovski

We study infinite-horizon stochastic optimal control problems with observable side information: a Markov chain that modulates an unknown context-conditional randomness distribution. Since this distribution is unknown, we propose a Bayesian…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-26 Johannes Milz , Alexander Shapiro , Enlu Zhou

Herein, the Hidden Markov Model is expanded to allow for Markov chain observations. In particular, the observations are assumed to be a Markov chain whose one step transition probabilities depend upon the hidden Markov chain. An…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-18 Michael A. Kouritzin

We consider the problem of flexible modeling of higher order hidden Markov models when the number of latent states and the nature of the serial dependence, including the true order, are unknown. We propose Bayesian nonparametric methodology…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-06 Abhra Sarkar , David B. Dunson

We consider a change-point detection problem for a simple class of Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMPs). A continuous-time PDMP is observed in discrete time and through noise, and the aim is to propose a numerical method to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-09-28 Alice Cleynen , Benoîte de Saporta

We consider the problem of sequential detection of a change in the statistical behavior of a hidden Markov model. By adopting a worst-case analysis with respect to the time of change and by taking into account the data that can be accessed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-01-29 George V. Moustakides

We study the quickest detection problem of a sudden change in the arrival rate of a Poisson process from a known value to an unknown and unobservable value at an unknown and unobservable disorder time. Our objective is to design an alarm…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-08-03 Erhan Bayraktar , Savas Dayanik , Ioannis Karatzas

In this work, we consider the optimal portfolio selection problem under hard constraints on trading volume amounts when the dynamics of the risky asset returns are governed by a discrete-time approximation of the Markov-modulated geometric…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2014-10-07 Vladimir Dombrovskii , Tatyana Obyedko

We consider the problem of optimal multi-modes switching in finite horizon, when the state of the system, including the switching cost functions are arbitrary ($g_{ij}(t,x)\geq 0$). We show existence of the optimal strategy, and give when…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-03-18 Brahim El Asri

Consider the following multi-phase project management problem. Each project is divided into several phases. All projects enter the next phase at the same point chosen by the decision maker based on observations up to that point. Within each…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Hock Peng Chan , Cheng-Der Fuh , Inchi Hu

We consider a change detection problem in which the arrival rate of a Poisson process changes suddenly at some unknown and unobservable disorder time. It is assumed that the prior distribution of the disorder time is known. The objective is…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Erhan Bayraktar , Semih Sezer

Temporal point processes have been widely applied to model event sequence data generated by online users. In this paper, we consider the problem of how to design the optimal control policy for point processes, such that the stochastic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-11-13 Yichen Wang , Grady Williams , Evangelos Theodorou , Le Song

We consider a risk-sensitive optimization of consumption-utility on infinite time horizon where the one-period investment gain depends on an underlying economic state whose evolution over time is assumed to be described by a discrete-time,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-11-19 Anindya Goswami , Nimit Rana , Tak Kuen Siu

We consider an investor faced with the utility maximization problem in which the risky asset price process has pure-jump dynamics affected by an unobservable continuous-time finite-state Markov chain, the intensity of which can also be…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-06-13 Sühan Altay , Katia Colaneri , Zehra Eksi

We study optimal control problems in infinite horizon when the dynamics belong to a specific class of piecewise deterministic Markov processes constrained to star-shaped networks (inspired by traffic models). We adapt the results in [H. M.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-10-06 Dan Goreac , Magdalena Kobylanski , Miguel Martinez

We study a linear price impact model including other liquidity takers, whose flow of orders either follows a Poisson or a Hawkes process. The optimal execution problem is solved explicitly in this context, and the closed-formula optimal…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2015-06-10 Aurélien Alfonsi , Pierre Blanc

In this paper, we study the $m$-states optimal switching problem in finite horizon, when the switching cost functions are arbitrary and can be positive or negative. This has an economic incentive in terms of central evaluation in cases…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-05-06 Brahim El Asri , Imade Fakhouri

This paper deals with the optimal stopping problem under partial observation for piecewise-deterministic Markov processes. We first obtain a recursive formulation of the optimal filter process and derive the dynamic programming equation of…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-05-28 Adrien Brandejsky , Benoîte de Saporta , François Dufour

We consider the Merton problem of optimizing expected power utility of terminal wealth in the case of an unobservable Markov-modulated drift. What makes the model special is that the agent is allowed to purchase costly expert opinions of…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-09-19 Christoph Knochenhauer , Alexander Merkel , Yufei Zhang

Covert planning refers to a class of constrained planning problems where an agent aims to accomplish a task with minimal information leaked to a passive observer to avoid detection. However, existing methods of covert planning often…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2023-11-02 Haoxiang Ma , Chongyang Shi , Shuo Han , Michael R. Dorothy , Jie Fu