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We study optimal trade execution strategies in financial markets with discrete order flow. The agent has a finite liquidation horizon and must minimize price impact given a random number of incoming trade counterparties. Assuming that the…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2012-05-07 Erhan Bayraktar , Mike Ludkovski

Optimal designs minimize the number of experimental runs (samples) needed to accurately estimate model parameters, resulting in algorithms that, for instance, efficiently minimize parameter estimate variance. Governed by knowledge of past…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-03 Nicholas W. Barendregt , Emily G. Webb , Zachary P. Kilpatrick

We consider the problem of optimal multiple switching in finite horizon, when the state of the system, including the switching costs, is a general adapted stochastic process. The problem is formulated as an extended impulse control problem…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-07-19 Boualem Djehiche , Said Hamadene , Alexandre Popier

Regime-switching models, in particular Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) where the switching is driven by an unobservable Markov chain, are widely-used in financial applications, due to their tractability and good econometric properties. In this…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-02-18 Vikram Krishnamurthy , Elisabeth Leoff , Jörn Sass

We study a class of mean-field control problems under partial observation. The controlled dynamics are of McKean-Vlasov type and are subject to regime switching driven by a hidden Markov chain. The observation process depends on the control…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-01-15 Marco Fuhrman , Huyên Pham , Silvia Ruda

We study selective monitors for labelled Markov chains. Monitors observe the outputs that are generated by a Markov chain during its run, with the goal of identifying runs as correct or faulty. A monitor is selective if it skips…

Formal Languages and Automata Theory · Computer Science 2018-07-03 Radu Grigore , Stefan Kiefer

We study optimal liquidation strategies under partial information for a single asset within a finite time horizon. We propose a model tailored for high-frequency trading, capturing price formation driven solely by order flow through…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-11-08 Etienne Chevalier , Yadh Hafsi , Vathana Ly Vath

This work proposes a finite-horizon optimal control strategy to solve the tracking problem while providing avoidance features to the closed-loop system. Inspired by the set-point tracking model predictive control (MPC) framework, the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-11-17 Marcelo A. Santos , Antonio Ferramosca , Guilherme V. Raffo

This work studies networked agents cooperating to track a dynamical state of nature under partial information. The proposed algorithm is a distributed Bayesian filtering algorithm for finite-state hidden Markov models (HMMs). It can be used…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-12-07 Mert Kayaalp , Virginia Bordignon , Stefan Vlaski , Vincenzo Matta , Ali H. Sayed

In this paper, we develop methods of nonlinear filtering and prediction of an unobservable Markov chain with a finite set of states. This Markov chain controls coefficients of AR(p) model. Using observations generated by AR(p) model we have…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-10 Vasily Vasilyev , Alexander Dobrovidov

A random sequence having two segments being the homogeneous Markov processes is registered. Each segment has his own transition probability law and the length of the segment is unknown and random. The transition probabilities of each…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-11-17 A. Ochman-Gozdek , W. Sarnowski , K. J. Szajowski

This study investigates an optimal consumption--investment problem in which the unobserved stock trend is modulated by a hidden Markov chain that represents different economic regimes. In the classical approach, the hidden state is…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-07-21 Kexin Chen , Hoi Ying Wong

We consider Markov decision processes where the state of the chain is only given at chosen observation times and of a cost. Optimal strategies involve the optimisation of observation times as well as the subsequent action values. We…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-03-27 Christoph Reisinger , Jonathan Tam

We consider the problem of optimally utilizing $N$ resources, each in an unknown binary state. The state of each resource can be inferred from state-dependent noisy measurements. Depending on its state, utilizing a resource results in…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-05-18 Lorenzo Ferrari , Qing Zhao , Anna Scaglione

Sample-efficient exploration is crucial not only for discovering rewarding experiences but also for adapting to environment changes in a task-agnostic fashion. A principled treatment of the problem of optimal input synthesis for system…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-10 Matthias Schultheis , Boris Belousov , Hany Abdulsamad , Jan Peters

This paper deals with optimal prediction in a regime-switching model driven by a continuous-time Markov chain. We extend existing results for geometric Brownian motion by deriving optimal stopping strategies that depend on the current…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-06-27 Yue Liu , Nicolas Privault

Suppose that local characteristics of several independent compound Poisson and Wiener processes change suddenly and simultaneously at some unobservable disorder time. The problem is to detect the disorder time as quickly as possible after…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-04-01 Savas Dayanik , H. Vincent Poor , Semih O. Sezer

We study an optimal process control problem with multiple assignable causes. The process is initially in-control but is subject to random transition to one of multiple out-of-control states due to assignable causes. The objective is to find…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2012-12-12 Jue Wang , Chi-Guhn Lee

We revisit closed-loop performance guarantees for Model Predictive Control in the deterministic and stochastic cases, which extend to novel performance results applicable to receding horizon control of Partially Observable Markov Decision…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-05-01 Martin A. Sehr , Robert R. Bitmead

A new class of stochastic processes called independent and periodically identically distributed (i.p.i.d.) processes is defined to capture periodically varying statistical behavior. A novel Bayesian theory is developed for detecting a…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-04-09 Taposh Banerjee , Prudhvi Gurram , Gene Whipps