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Related papers: Reduced branching processes with very heavy tails

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The limiting probability distribution is one of the key characteristics of a Markov chain since it shows its long-term behavior. In this paper, for a higher order Markov chain, we establish some properties related to its exact limiting…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-20 Lixing Han , Jianhong Xu

We consider a critical branching particle system in $\R^d$, composed of individuals of a finite number of types $i\in\{1,...,K\}$. Each individual of type $i$ moves independently according to a symmetric $\alpha_i$-stable motion. We assume…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-07-04 Peter Kevei , Jose Alfredo Lopez Mimbela

We prove a central limit type theorem for critical marked Hawkes processes. We study the case where the marks are i.i.d. with nonnegative values and their common distribution is either heavy tailed or has finite variance. The kernel…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-05 Anna Talarczyk

We study a nonlinear branching diffusion process in the sense of McKean, i.e., where particles are subjected to a mean-field interaction. We consider first a strong formulation of the problem and we provide an existence and uniqueness…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-09-12 Julien Claisse , Jiazhi Kang , Xiaolu Tan

If we follow an asexually reproducing population through time, then the amount of time that has passed since the most recent common ancestor (MRCA) of all current individuals lived will change as time progresses. The resulting "MRCA age"…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-01-13 Steven N. Evans , Peter L. Ralph

Extinction of a long-lived isolated stochastic population can be described as an exponentially slow decay of quasi-stationary probability distribution of the population size. We address extinction of a population in a two-population system…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-14 Michael Khasin , Baruch Meerson , Pavel V. Sasorov

We consider a stationary regularly varying time series which can be expressedas a function of a geometrically ergodic Markov chain. We obtain practical conditionsfor the weak convergence of the tail array sums and feasible estimators…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-09-25 Rafal Kulik , Philippe Soulier , Olivier Wintenberger , Rafa Kulik

Branching processes are a class of continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) prevalent for modeling stochastic population dynamics in ecology, biology, epidemiology, and many other fields. The transient or finite-time behavior of these systems…

Computation · Statistics 2023-02-24 Achal Awasthi , Jason Xu

In numerous papers, the behaviour of stochastic population models is investigated through the sign of a real quantity which is the growth rate of the population near the extinction set. In many cases, it is proven that when this growth rate…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-01-06 Dang H. Nguyen , Edouard Strickler

We are interested in the long time behavior of a two-type density-dependent biological population conditioned to non-extinction, in both cases of competition or weak cooperation between the two species. This population is described by a…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-11-04 Patrick Cattiaux , Sylvie Méléard

The first chapter concerns monotype population models. We first study general birth and death processes and we give non-explosion and extinction criteria, moment computations and a pathwise representation. We then show how different scales…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-07-06 Vincent Bansaye , Sylvie Méléard

We studied how to obtain a distribution for the number of ancestors in species of sexual reproduction. Present models concentrate on the estimation of distributions repetitions of ancestors in genealogical trees. It has been shown that is…

Biological Physics · Physics 2019-09-12 M. Caruso , C. Jarne

We establish sufficient conditions for exponential convergence to a unique quasi-stationary distribution in the total variation norm. These conditions also ensure the existence and exponential ergodicity of the Q-process, the process…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-08-01 Aurélien Velleret

Let $T$ be the extinction moment of a critical branching process $Z=(Z_{n},n\geq 0) $ in a random environment specified by iid probability generating functions. We study the asymptotic behavior of the probability of extinction of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-09-08 V. A. Vatutin V. Wachtel

This article concerns the tail probabilities of a light-tailed Markov-modulated L\'evy process stopped at a state-dependent Poisson rate. The tails are shown to decay exponentially at rates given by the unique positive and negative roots of…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-10-26 Brendan K. Beare , Won-Ki Seo , Alexis Akira Toda

In this paper, we investigate the asymptotic behaviors of the survival probability and maximal displacement of a subcritical branching killed L\'{e}vy process $X$ in $\mathbb{R}$. Let $\zeta$ denote the extinction time, $M_t$ be the maximal…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-21 Yan-Xia Ren , Renming Song , Yaping Zhu

In this paper, we study quasi-stationary distributions of nonlinearly perturbed semi-Markov processes in discrete time. This type of distributions is of interest for the analysis of stochastic systems which have finite lifetimes, but are…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-04-28 Mikael Petersson

A general class of non-Markov, supercritical Gaussian branching particle systems is introduced and its long-time asymptotics is studied. Both weak and strong laws of large numbers are developed with the limit object being characterized in…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-07-30 Michael A. Kouritzin , Khoa Lê , Deniz Sezer

In this manuscript, we continue with the systematic study of the speed of extinction of continuous state branching processes in L\'evy environments under more general branching mechanisms. Here, we deal with the weakly subcritical regime…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-02-20 Natalia Cardona-Tobón , Juan Carlos Pardo

We study a continuous time Mutually Catalytic Branching model on the $\mathbb{Z}^{d}$. The model describes the behavior of two different populations of particles, performing random walk on the lattice in the presence of branching, that is,…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-14 Alexandra Jamchi Fugenfirov , Leonid Mytnik