Related papers: Probabilistic projections of HIV prevalence using …
Background: High HIV transmission persists in many U.S. jurisdictions despite prevention efforts. HIV self-testing offers a means to overcome barriers associated with routine laboratory-based testing but carries a risk of increasing…
Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is the most common sexually transmitted infection in the world. Persistent oncogenic Human papillomavirus infection has been a leading threat to global health and can lead to serious complications such…
One of the cornerstones in combating the HIV pandemic is being able to assess the current state and evolution of local HIV epidemics. This remains a complex problem, as many HIV infected individuals remain unaware of their infection status,…
In low- and middle-income countries, household surveys are the most reliable data source to examine health and demographic indicators at the subnational level, an exercise in small area estimation. Model-based unit-level models are favored…
Empirical best prediction (EBP) is a well-known method for producing reliable proportion estimates when the primary data source provides only small or no sample from finite populations. There are potential challenges in implementing…
The United Nations (UN) Population Division is considering producing probabilistic projections for the total fertility rate (TFR) using the Bayesian hierarchical model of Alkema et al. (2011), which produces predictive distributions of TFR…
To combat the HIV/AIDS pandemic effectively, targeted interventions among certain key populations play a critical role. Examples of such key populations include sex workers, people who inject drugs, and men who have sex with men. While…
Accurate estimates of subnational populations are important for policy formulation and monitoring population health indicators. For example, estimates of the number of women of reproductive age are important to understand the population at…
In this work we develop a stochastic model of acute HIV infection, based on the well-known standard model, that allows us to simulate the complex mutation pathways of HIV escape from multiple CTL responses. Under this model, we describe two…
When statistical analyses consider multiple data sources, Markov melding provides a method for combining the source-specific Bayesian models. Markov melding joins together submodels that have a common quantity. One challenge is that the…
Anti-retroviral drugs can reduce the infectiousness of people living with HIV by about 96%--treatment as prevention or TasP--and can reduce the risk of being infected by an HIV positive person by about 70%--pre-exposure prophylaxis or…
This paper presents a novel Bayesian approach for hyperspectral image unmixing. The observed pixels are modeled by a linear combination of material signatures weighted by their corresponding abundances. A spike-and-slab abundance prior is…
We present a new analysis of relationships between disease incidence and the prevalence of an experimentally defined state of `recent infection'. This leads to a clean separation between biological parameters (properties of disease…
Molecular HIV Surveillance (MHS) has been described as key to enabling rapid responses to HIV outbreaks. It operates by linking individuals with genetically similar viral sequences, which forms a network. A major limitation of MHS is that…
Retrospective cohorts can be extracted from Electronic Health Records (EHR) to study prevalence, time until disease or event occurrence and cure proportion in real world scenarios. However, EHR are collected for patient care rather than…
Due to the widespread availability of effective antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens, average lifespans of persons with HIV (PWH) in the United States have increased significantly in recent decades. In turn, the demographic profile of PWH…
Survival models are used in various fields, such as the development of cancer treatment protocols. Although many statistical and machine learning models have been proposed to achieve accurate survival predictions, little attention has been…
The transmission dynamics of an epidemic are rarely homogeneous. Super-spreading events and super-spreading individuals are two types of heterogeneous transmissibility. Inference of super-spreading is commonly carried out on secondary case…
Difference-in-differences (DID) approaches are widely used for estimating causal effects with observational data before and after an intervention. DID traditionally estimates the average treatment effect among the treated after making a…
The probability-scale residual (PSR) is well defined across a wide variety of variable types and models, making it useful for studies of HIV/AIDS. In this manuscript, we highlight some of the properties of the PSR and illustrate its…