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Background: High HIV transmission persists in many U.S. jurisdictions despite prevention efforts. HIV self-testing offers a means to overcome barriers associated with routine laboratory-based testing but carries a risk of increasing…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-04-23 Alex Viguerie

Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is the most common sexually transmitted infection in the world. Persistent oncogenic Human papillomavirus infection has been a leading threat to global health and can lead to serious complications such…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-11-13 Weiyi Wang , Shailendra Sawleshwarkar , Mahendra Piraveenan

One of the cornerstones in combating the HIV pandemic is being able to assess the current state and evolution of local HIV epidemics. This remains a complex problem, as many HIV infected individuals remain unaware of their infection status,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-10-24 Pieter Libin , Nassim Versbraegen , Ana B. Abecasis , Perpetua Gomes , Tom Lenaerts , Ann Nowé

In low- and middle-income countries, household surveys are the most reliable data source to examine health and demographic indicators at the subnational level, an exercise in small area estimation. Model-based unit-level models are favored…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-23 Yunhan Wu , Jon Wakefield

Empirical best prediction (EBP) is a well-known method for producing reliable proportion estimates when the primary data source provides only small or no sample from finite populations. There are potential challenges in implementing…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-22 Aditi Sen , Partha Lahiri

The United Nations (UN) Population Division is considering producing probabilistic projections for the total fertility rate (TFR) using the Bayesian hierarchical model of Alkema et al. (2011), which produces predictive distributions of TFR…

Applications · Statistics 2012-12-04 Bailey K. Fosdick , Adrian E. Raftery

To combat the HIV/AIDS pandemic effectively, targeted interventions among certain key populations play a critical role. Examples of such key populations include sex workers, people who inject drugs, and men who have sex with men. While…

Applications · Statistics 2021-07-14 Jacob Parsons , Xiaoyue Niu , Le Bao

Accurate estimates of subnational populations are important for policy formulation and monitoring population health indicators. For example, estimates of the number of women of reproductive age are important to understand the population at…

Applications · Statistics 2021-02-16 Monica Alexander , Leontine Alkema

In this work we develop a stochastic model of acute HIV infection, based on the well-known standard model, that allows us to simulate the complex mutation pathways of HIV escape from multiple CTL responses. Under this model, we describe two…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-08-16 Sivan Leviyang

When statistical analyses consider multiple data sources, Markov melding provides a method for combining the source-specific Bayesian models. Markov melding joins together submodels that have a common quantity. One challenge is that the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-17 Andrew A. Manderson , Robert J. B. Goudie

Anti-retroviral drugs can reduce the infectiousness of people living with HIV by about 96%--treatment as prevention or TasP--and can reduce the risk of being infected by an HIV positive person by about 70%--pre-exposure prophylaxis or…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-09-04 Brian G. Williams , Eleanor Gouws , John Hargrove , Cari van Schalkwyk , Hilmarie Brand

This paper presents a novel Bayesian approach for hyperspectral image unmixing. The observed pixels are modeled by a linear combination of material signatures weighted by their corresponding abundances. A spike-and-slab abundance prior is…

Applications · Statistics 2022-05-04 Zeng Li , Yoann Altmann , Jie Chen , Stephen Mclaughlin , Susanto Rahardja

We present a new analysis of relationships between disease incidence and the prevalence of an experimentally defined state of `recent infection'. This leads to a clean separation between biological parameters (properties of disease…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2008-06-09 Thomas A. McWalter , Alex Welte

Molecular HIV Surveillance (MHS) has been described as key to enabling rapid responses to HIV outbreaks. It operates by linking individuals with genetically similar viral sequences, which forms a network. A major limitation of MHS is that…

Applications · Statistics 2024-07-24 Ravi Goyal , Kevin Nguyen , Victor De Gruttola , Susan J Little , Colby Cohen , Natasha K Martin

Retrospective cohorts can be extracted from Electronic Health Records (EHR) to study prevalence, time until disease or event occurrence and cure proportion in real world scenarios. However, EHR are collected for patient care rather than…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Matilda Pitt , Robert J. B. Goudie

Due to the widespread availability of effective antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens, average lifespans of persons with HIV (PWH) in the United States have increased significantly in recent decades. In turn, the demographic profile of PWH…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-03-21 Alex Viguerie , Elisa Iacomini

Survival models are used in various fields, such as the development of cancer treatment protocols. Although many statistical and machine learning models have been proposed to achieve accurate survival predictions, little attention has been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-26 Hrushikesh Loya , Pranav Poduval , Deepak Anand , Neeraj Kumar , Amit Sethi

The transmission dynamics of an epidemic are rarely homogeneous. Super-spreading events and super-spreading individuals are two types of heterogeneous transmissibility. Inference of super-spreading is commonly carried out on secondary case…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2025-01-23 Hannah Craddock , Simon EF Spencer , Xavier Didelot

Difference-in-differences (DID) approaches are widely used for estimating causal effects with observational data before and after an intervention. DID traditionally estimates the average treatment effect among the treated after making a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-24 Julia C. Thome , Andrew J. Spieker , Peter F. Rebeiro , Chun Li , Tong Li , Bryan E. Shepherd

The probability-scale residual (PSR) is well defined across a wide variety of variable types and models, making it useful for studies of HIV/AIDS. In this manuscript, we highlight some of the properties of the PSR and illustrate its…

Applications · Statistics 2018-03-02 Bryan E. Shepherd , Qi Liu , Valentine Wanga , Chun Li