Related papers: On Predicting the Solar Cycle using Mean-Field Mod…
One of the most striking manifestations of orderly behavior emerging out of complex interactions in any astrophysical system is the 11-year cycle of sunspots. However, direct sunspot observations and reconstructions of long-term solar…
The inherent stochastic and nonlinear nature of the solar dynamo makes the strength of the solar cycles vary in a wide range, making it difficult to predict the strength of an upcoming solar cycle. Recently, our work has shown that by using…
A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including early forecasts for cycle 25. The review focuses on those aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of…
The solar magnetic activity cycle is responsible for periodic episodes of severe space weather, which can perturb satellite orbits, interfere with communications systems, and bring down power grids. Much progress has recently been made in…
Prediction of the Sun's magnetic activity is important because of its effect on space environment and climate. However, recent efforts to predict the amplitude of the solar cycle have resulted in diverging forecasts with no consensus.…
We study the origin of the predictive skill of some methods to forecast the strength of solar activity cycles. A simple flux transport model for the azimuthally averaged radial magnetic field at the solar surface is used, which contains a…
Solar activity cycle varies in amplitude. The last Cycle 24 is the weakest in the past century. Sun's activity dominates Earth's space environment. The frequency and intensity of the Sun's activity are accordant with the solar cycle. Hence…
We apply a nonlinear mean-field dynamo model which includes a budget equation for the dynamics of Wolf numbers to predict solar activity. This dynamo model takes into account the algebraic and dynamic nonlinearities of the alpha effect,…
Fluctuations in the Sun's magnetic activity, including episodes of grand minima such as the Maunder minimum have important consequences for space and planetary environments. However, the underlying dynamics of such extreme fluctuations…
The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main drivers behind changes in the interplanetary environment and the Earth's upper atmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather). These changes have a direct impact on the…
Despite the known general properties of the solar cycles, a reliable forecast of the 11-year sunspot number variations is still a problem. The difficulties are caused by the apparent chaotic behavior of the sunspot numbers from cycle to…
We begin with a review of the predictions for cycle~24 before its onset. After summarizing the basics of the flux transport dynamo model, we discuss how this model had been used to make a successful prediction of cycle~24, on the assumption…
Context. Solar activity cycles vary in amplitude and duration. The variations can be at least partly explained by fluctuations in dynamo parameters. Aims. We want to restrict uncertainty in fluctuating dynamo parameters and find out which…
The Sun's activity cycle governs the radiation, particle and magnetic flux in the heliosphere creating hazardous space weather. Decadal-scale variations define space climate and force the Earth's atmosphere. However, predicting the solar…
Computational heliophysics has shed light on the fundamental physical processes inside the Sun, such as the differential rotation, meridional circulation, and dynamo-generation of magnetic fields. However, despite the substantial advances,…
The magnetic activity of the Sun, as manifested in the sunspot cycle, originates deep within its convection zone through a dynamo mechanism which involves non-trivial interactions between the plasma and magnetic field in the solar interior.…
The predictability, or lack thereof, of the solar cycle is governed by numerous separate physical processes that act in unison in the interior of the Sun. Magnetic flux transport and the finite time delay it introduces, specifically in the…
The theory of the solar/stellar activity cycles is presented, based on the mean-field concept in magnetohydrodynamics. A new approach to the formulation of the electromotive force and the theory of differential rotation and meridional…
The large-scale magnetic field observed at the solar surface is produced by the interior dynamo process. Whether this surface field also provides the dominant seed for the subsequent dynamo cycle, however, remains controversial, with…
The prediction of the strength of future solar cycles is of interest because of its practical significance for space weather and as a test of our theoretical understanding of the solar cycle. The Babcock-Leighton mechanism allows…