Related papers: Large portfolio losses: A dynamic contagion model

We analyze systems of agents sharing light-tailed risky claims issued by different financial objects. Assuming exponentially distributed claims, we obtain that both agents' and system's losses follow generalized exponential mixture…

The classical reduced-form and filtration expansion framework in credit risk is extended to the case of multiple, non-ordered defaults, assuming that conditional densities of the default times exist. Intensities and pricing formulas are…

We study an optimal investment/consumption problem in a model capturing market and credit risk dependencies. Stochastic factors drive both the default intensity and the volatility of the stocks in the portfolio. We use the martingale…

We develop a methodology for index tracking and risk exposure control using financial derivatives. Under a continuous-time diffusion framework for price evolution, we present a pathwise approach to construct dynamic portfolios of…

We present a class of flexible and tractable static factor models for the term structure of joint default probabilities, the factor copula models. These high-dimensional models remain parsimonious with pair-copula constructions, and nest…

The DebtRank algorithm has been increasingly investigated as a method to estimate the impact of shocks in financial networks, as it overcomes the limitations of the traditional default-cascade approaches. Here we formulate a dynamical…

Estimating and assessing the risk of a large portfolio is an important topic in financial econometrics and risk management. The risk is often estimated by a substitution of a good estimator of the volatility matrix. However, the accuracy of…

Tracer-diffusion of small molecules through dense systems of chain polymers is studied within an athermal lattice model, where hard core interactions are taken into account by means of the site exclusion principle. An approximate mapping of…

Systemic financial risk refers to the simultaneous failure or destabilization of multiple financial institutions, often triggered by contagion mechanisms or common exposures to shocks. In this paper, we present a dynamical model of bank…

The current global financial system forms a highly interconnected network where a default in one of its nodes can propagate to many other nodes, causing a catastrophic avalanche effect. In this paper we consider the problem of reducing the…

We study investment and insurance demand decisions for an agent in a theoretical continuous-time expected utility maximization model that combines risky assets with an (exogenous) insurable background risk. This risk takes the form of a…

Assessing systemic risk in financial markets is of great importance but it often requires data that are unavailable or available at a very low frequency. For this reason, systemic risk assessment with partial information is potentially very…

There is a widespread recent interest in using ideas from statistical physics to model certain types of problems in economics and finance. The main idea is to derive the macroscopic behavior of the market from the random local interactions…

Will a new smartphone application diffuse deeply in the population or will it sink into oblivion soon? To predict this, we argue that common models of spread of innovations based on cascade dynamics or epidemics may not be fully adequate.…

Within the framework of maximum entropy principle we show that the finite-size long-range Ising model is the adequate model for the description of homogeneous credit portfolios and the computation of credit risk when default correlations…

We quantify model risk of a financial portfolio whereby a multi-period mean-standard-deviation criterion is used as a selection criterion. In this work, model risk is defined as the loss due to uncertainty of the underlying distribution of…

We show that financial correlations exhibit a non-trivial dynamic behavior. We introduce a simple phenomenological model of a multi-asset financial market, which takes into account the impact of portfolio investment on price dynamics. This…

We analyze a power distribution line with high penetration of distributed generation and strong variations of power consumption and generation levels. In the presence of uncertainty the statistical description of the system is required to…

Groups of enterprises can serve as guarantees for one another and form complex networks when obtaining loans from commercial banks. During economic slowdowns, corporate default may spread like a virus and lead to large-scale defaults or…

In financial markets marked by inherent volatility, extreme events can result in substantial investor losses. This paper proposes a portfolio strategy designed to mitigate extremal risks. By applying extreme value theory, we evaluate the…