Related papers: Large portfolio losses: A dynamic contagion model

The rate of adoption of new information depends on reinforcement from multiple sources in a way that often cannot be described by simple contagion processes. In such cases, contagion is said to be complex. Complex contagion happens in the…

This article develops the theory of risk budgeting portfolios, when we would like to impose weight constraints. It appears that the mathematical problem is more complex than the traditional risk budgeting problem. The formulation of the…

In this paper we estimate the propagation of liquidity shocks through interbank markets when the information about the underlying credit network is incomplete. We show that techniques such as Maximum Entropy currently used to reconstruct…

We propose to interpret distribution model risk as sensitivity of expected loss to changes in the risk factor distribution, and to measure the distribution model risk of a portfolio by the maximum expected loss over a set of plausible…

Credit risk stress testing has become an important risk management device which is used both by banks internally and by regulators. Stress testing is complex because it essentially means projecting a bank's full balance sheet conditional on…

We propose a dynamic mean field model for `systemic risk' in large financial systems, which we derive from a system of interacting diffusions on the positive half-line with an absorbing boundary at the origin. These diffusions represent the…

In this article, we study an interacting particle system in the context of epidemiology where the individuals (particles) are characterized by their position and infection state. We begin with a description at the microscopic level where…

We study the disequilibrium dynamics of a stylised model of production networks in which firms use perishable and non-substitutable intermediate inputs, so that adverse idiosyncratic productivity shocks can trigger downstream shortages and…

A major impact of globalization has been the information flow across the financial markets rendering them vulnerable to financial contagion. Research has focused on network analysis techniques to understand the extent and nature of such…

The scope of financial systemic risk research encompasses a wide range of interbank channels and effects, including asset correlation shocks, default contagion, illiquidity contagion, and asset fire sales. This paper introduces a financial…

We study the limiting distribution of a volatility target index as the discretisation time step converges to zero. Two limit theorems (a strong law of large numbers and a central limit theorem) are established, and as an application, the…

Various phenomenological models of particle multiplicity distributions are discussed using a general form of the grand canonical partition function. These phenomenological models include a wide range of varied processes such as coherent…

We study the problem of optimal long term portfolio selection with a view to beat a benchmark. Two kinds of objectives are considered. One concerns the probability of outperforming the benchmark and seeks either to minimise the decay rate…

We review recent progress in modeling credit risk for correlated assets. We start from the Merton model which default events and losses are derived from the asset values at maturity. To estimate the time development of the asset values, the…

Diffusion Policy has shown great performance in robotic manipulation tasks under stochastic perturbations, due to its ability to model multimodal action distributions. Nonetheless, its reliance on a computationally expensive reverse-time…

In this paper we analyze the resilience of a network of banks to joint price fluctuations of the external assets in which they have shared exposures, and evaluate the worst-case effects of the possible default contagion. Indeed, when the…

Ordinary differential equations obtained as limits of Markov processes appear in many settings. They may arise by scaling large systems, or by averaging rapidly fluctuating systems, or in systems involving multiple time-scales, by a…

We study large deviations and rare default clustering events in a dynamic large heterogeneous portfolio of interconnected components. Defaults come as Poisson events and the default intensities of the different components in the system…

Corporate insolvency can have a devastating effect on the economy. With an increasing number of companies making expansion overseas to capitalize on foreign resources, a multinational corporate bankruptcy can disrupt the world's financial…

Distress propagation occurs in connected networks, its rate and extent being dependent on network topology. To study this, we choose economic production networks as a paradigm. An economic network can be examined at many levels: linkages…