Related papers: Large portfolio losses: A dynamic contagion model
In this paper, we introduce an impact centrality measure to evaluate shock propagation on financial networks capturing a notion of contagion and systemic risk contributions, permitting comparisons of these risks over time. In addition, we…
The European sovereign debt crisis has impaired many European banks. The distress on the European banks may transmit worldwide, and result in a large-scale knock-on default of financial institutions. This study presents a computer…
We consider an investor facing a classical portfolio problem of optimal investment in a log-Brownian stock and a fixed-interest bond, but constrained to choose portfolio and consumption strategies that reduce a dynamic shortfall risk…
Typically, contagion strength is modeled by a transmission rate $\lambda$, whereby all nodes in a network are treated uniformly in a mean-field approximation. However, local agents react differently to the same contagion based on their…
Complex non-linear interactions between banks and assets we model by two time-dependent Erd\H{o}s Renyi network models where each node, representing bank, can invest either to a single asset (model I) or multiple assets (model II). We use…
This paper investigates two mechanisms of financial contagion that are, firstly, the correlated exposure of banks to the same source of risk, and secondly the direct exposure of banks in the interbank market. It will consider a random…
We propose a credit risk model for portfolios composed of green and brown loans, extending the ASRF framework via a two-factor copula structure. Systematic risk is modeled using potentially skewed distributions, allowing for asymmetric…
Regulatory requirements dictate that financial institutions must calculate risk capital (funds that must be retained to cover future losses) at least annually. Procedures for doing this have been well-established for many years, but recent…
We consider a network of bank holdings, where every holding has two subsidiaries of different types. A subsidiary can trade with another holding's subsidiary of the same type. Holdings support their subsidiaries up to a certain level when…
Fire sales are among the major drivers of market instability in modern financial systems. Due to iterated distressed selling and the associated price impact, initial shocks to some institutions can be amplified dramatically through the…
We analyze the fluctuation of the loss from default around its large portfolio limit in a class of reduced-form models of correlated firm-by-firm default timing. We prove a weak convergence result for the fluctuation process and use it for…
A simple banking network model is proposed which features multiple waves of bank defaults and is analytically solvable in the limiting case of an infinitely large homogeneous network. The model is a collection of nodes representing…
We analyse the importance of international relations between countries on the financial stability. The contagion effect in the network is tested by implementing an epidemiological model, comprising a number of European countries and using…
As global financial markets become increasingly interconnected, financial contagion has developed into a major influencer of asset price dynamics. Motivated by this context, our study explores financial contagion both within and between…
We develop a dynamic point process model of correlated default timing in a portfolio of firms, and analyze typical default profiles in the limit as the size of the pool grows. In our model, a firm defaults at a stochastic intensity that is…
We consider the problem of concurrent portfolio losses in two non-overlapping credit portfolios. In order to explore the full statistical dependence structure of such portfolio losses, we estimate their empirical pairwise copulas. Instead…
Based on an empirical analysis of the network structure of the Austrian inter-bank market, we study the flow of funds through the banking network following exogenous shocks to the system. These shocks are implemented by stochastic changes…
We have conducted an agent-based simulation of chain bankruptcy. The propagation of credit risk on a network, i.e., chain bankruptcy, is the key to nderstanding largesized bankruptcies. In our model, decrease of revenue by the loss of…
We propose a dynamic model of dependence structure between financial institutions within a financial system and we construct measures for dependence and financial instability. Employing Markov structures of joint credit migrations, our…
Threats on the stability of a financial system may severely affect the functioning of the entire economy, and thus considerable emphasis is placed on the analyzing the cause and effect of such threats. The financial crisis in the current…