Economics

As the development and use of artificial intelligence (AI) continues to grow, policymakers are increasingly grappling with the question of how to regulate this technology. The most far-reaching international initiative is the European Union…

This paper models firm-to-firm trade in a production network as a set of double auctions. Firms have multilateral market power, namely, can affect prices in both input and output markets. The size and division of surplus are endogenous and…

We study the associations between everyday economic decision-making quality and people's emotional states. Using high-frequency, highly disaggregated consumer "scanner" data, we show that the cost of poor decision-making is substantial, on…

We study an information acquisition problem in which an informed trader acquires costly information prior to trading in the Kyle equilibrium. The cost of information acquisition is represented by an entropy cost. Regardless of the prior…

Recommendation systems (RSs) are increasingly used to guide job seekers on online platforms, yet the algorithms currently deployed are typically optimized for predictive objectives such as clicks, applications, or hires, rather than job…

Extreme economic outcomes are not shaped by tails alone. They are also shaped by unequal access to opportunities. This paper develops a theory of heterogeneous extremes by taking the distribution of opportunity access as the object of…

We characterize optimal monetary policy when policy endogenously moves risk premia through redistribution across agents who differ in their willingness to bear risk. The analytical core is Marginal Risk Capacity, the covariance of monetary…

We characterize the maximal attainable power-size gap in overidentified instrumental variables models with heteroskedastic or autocorrelated (HAC) errors. Using total variation distance and Kraft's theorem, we define the decision theoretic…

The Riesz representer is a central object in semiparametric statistics and debiased/doubly-robust estimation. Two literatures in econometrics have highlighted the role for directly estimating Riesz representers: the automatic debiased…

This paper investigates the barriers to gender convergence using Japan as a salient environment to explore the interactive effects of labor market structures and social norms. I develop a quantitative model of household labor supply where…

We study the employment effects of the 22% increase in the Spanish minimum wage in 2019, focusing on young workers. Using census-grade administrative tax data covering the universe of formal wage bills and employment (Models 190/390 linked…

The Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics has been awarded annually since 1969. Who wins the prize is a topic of much interest and tracks the whole course of the academic discipline over the last 57 years. Explaining who wins the prize in any…

If AI displaces human workers faster than the economy can reabsorb them, it risks eroding the very consumer demand firms depend on. We show that knowing this is not enough for firms to stop it. In a competitive task-based model, demand…

Panel data methods are widely used in empirical analysis to address unobserved heterogeneity, but causal inference remains challenging when treatments are endogenous and confounding variables high-dimensional and potentially nonlinear.…

The potential system is a nonparametric time series model for assessing the causal impact of moving an assignment at time $t$ on an outcome at future time $t+h$, accounting for the presence of features. The potential system provides…

We study the causes and consequences of bank runs using a novel dataset of bank runs in the United States from 1863 to 1934. Applying large language models to historical newspapers, we identify 3,421 runs on individual banks. The resulting…

We study optimal dynamic persuasion in a bandit experimentation model where a principal, unlike in standard settings, has a single-peaked preference over the agent's stopping time. This non-monotonic preference arises because maximizing the…

We establish concentration rates for estimation of treatment effects in experiments that incorporate prior sources of information -- such as past pilots, related studies, or expert assessments -- whose external validity is uncertain. Each…

We study how delegating pricing to large language models (LLMs) can facilitate collusion in a duopoly when both sellers rely on the same pre-trained model. The LLM is characterized by (i) a propensity parameter capturing its internal bias…

We develop a theoretical framework for sample splitting in A/B testing environments, where data for each test are partitioned into two splits to measure methodological performance when the true impacts of tests are unobserved. We show that…