Economics
In this paper, we present the Tokenized Sovereign Debt Conversion Mechanism (TSDCM), a smart-contracted instrument that, upon meeting both debt-to-GDP and GDP-growth thresholds, automates the retirement of sovereign debt. TSDCM initiates…
I study the optimal voting mechanism for a committee that must decide whether to enact or block a policy of unknown benefit. Information can come both from committee members who can acquire it at cost, and a strategic lobbyist who wishes…
We propose a general methodology for recovering preference parameters from data on choices and response times. Our methods yield estimates with fast ($1/n$ for $n$ data points) convergence rates when specialized to the popular Drift…
A seller offers an asset in a decentralised market. Buyers have private signals about their common value. I study whether the market becomes allocatively more efficient with (i) more buyers, (ii) better-informed buyers. Both increase the…
An informed Advisor and an uninformed Decision-Maker, with conflicting interests, engage in repeated cheap talk communication in always new decision problems. While the Decision-Maker's optimal payoff is attainable in some subgame-perfect…
We analyze the first and second moment risk premia in the Bitcoin market based on options and realized returns and contrast them to the premia embedded in the main US stock index market. First, Bitcoin is much more volatile and has a higher…
Although electric vehicles (EVs) are a climate friendly alternative to internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), EV adoption is challenged by higher up-front procurement prices. Existing discourse attributes this price differential to…
I develop a theoretical model to examine how the rise of autonomous AI (artificial intelligence) agents disrupts two-sided digital advertising markets. Through this framework, I demonstrate that users' rational, private decisions to…
This paper develops the first comprehensive theoretical and empirical framework for analyzing AI-driven spatial distribution dynamics in metropolitan areas undergoing demographic transition. We extend New Economic Geography by formalizing…
We introduce and formalize misalignment, a phenomenon of interactive environments perceived from an analyst's perspective where an agent holds beliefs about another agent's beliefs that do not correspond to the actual beliefs of the latter.…
We explore the issues of identification for nonlinear Impulse Response Functions in nonlinear dynamic models and discuss the settings in which the problem can be mitigated. In particular, we introduce the nonlinear autoregressive…
This paper studies settings where the analyst is interested in identifying and estimating the average \emph{direct} causal effect of a binary treatment on an outcome. We consider a setup in which the outcome realization does not get…
An employer contracts with a worker to incentivize efforts whose productivity depends on ability; the worker then enters a market that pays him contingent on ability evaluation. With non-additive monitoring technology, the interdependence…
This paper proposes normative criteria for voting rules under uncertainty about individual preferences. The criteria emphasize the importance of responsiveness, i.e., the probability that the social outcome coincides with the realized…
Many causal and structural parameters in economics can be identified and estimated by computing the value of an optimization program over all distributions consistent with the model and the data. Existing tools apply when the data is…
This paper investigates the dynamics of risk transmission in cryptocurrency markets and proposes a novel framework for volatility forecasting. The framework uncovers two key empirical facts: the asymmetric amplification of volatility…
We examine functions representing the cumulative probability of a binomial random variable exceeding a threshold, expressed in terms of the success probability per trial. These functions are known to exhibit a unique inflection point. We…
We review recent developments in detecting and estimating multiple change-points in time series models with exogenous and endogenous regressors, panel data models, and factor models. This review differs from others in multiple ways: (1) it…
Based on It\^o semimartingale models, several studies have proposed methods for forecasting intraday volatility using high-frequency financial data. These approaches typically rely on restrictive parametric assumptions and are often…
For the standard lattice model of information structures, we derive a reduced poset representation which provides the same informational content as the complete lattice structure which derives it. Rational agents can recover the complete…