Economics

This paper develops a data-driven approach to Bayesian persuasion. The receiver is privately informed about the prior distribution of the state of the world, the sender knows the receiver's preferences but does not know the distribution of…

A fundamental challenge in the design of nonconvex markets is the absence of existence guarantees for Walrasian equilibria. Despite this lack of guarantees, we observed that the European day-ahead electricity auction attained equilibrium on…

We explore the international transmission of monetary policy and central bank information shocks originating from the United States and the euro area. Employing a panel vector autoregression, we use macroeconomic and financial variables…

We propose a structural approach to extrapolate average partial effects away from the cutoff in regression discontinuity designs (RDDs). Our focus is on applications that exploit closely contested school district referenda to estimate the…

In this work, we provide empirical evidence on organized criminal groups' (OCGs) behavior across the Liverpool area in the U.K. (Merseyside). We find that violent crimes concerning OCGs concentrate in the areas yielding the highest revenue,…

Most research questions in agricultural and applied economics are of a causal nature, i.e., how one or more variables (e.g., policies, prices, the weather) affect one or more other variables (e.g., income, crop yields, pollution). Only some…

Behavioural finance offers a valuable framework for examining foreign exchange (FX) market dynamics, including puzzles such as excess volatility and fat-tailed distributions. Yet, when it comes to their interaction with the `real' side of…

Using a panel payment system dataset of thirty-three provinces in Indonesia, we examine the impact of digital payment on the regional economy, considering structural breaks induced by unprecedented events and policies. Digital payments were…

This article develops a covariate balancing approach for the estimation of treatment effects on the treated (ATT) in a difference-in-differences (DID) research design when panel data are available. We show that the proposed covariate…

A central challenge in any study of the effects of beliefs on outcomes, such as decisions and behavior, is the risk of omitted variables bias. Omitted variables, frequently unmeasured or even unknown, can induce correlations between beliefs…

We study a long-run persuasion problem where a long-lived Sender repeatedly interacts with a sequence of short-lived Receivers who may adopt a misspecified model for belief updating. The Sender commits to a stationary information structure,…

We examine receiver-optimal mechanisms for aggregating information divided across many biased senders. Each sender privately observes an unconditionally independent signal about an unknown state, so no sender can verify another's report. A…

Several key states in various regions of the U.S. have experienced recent sawtimber as well as pulp and paper mill closures, which raises an important policy question: how have and will key macroeconomic and industry specific indicators…

Despite recent advancements in machine learning, in practice, relevant datasets are often distributed among market competitors who are reluctant to share. To incentivize data sharing, recent works propose analytics markets, where multiple…

We study a model of retail agglomeration where consumers are more likely to visit zones with a higher concentration of shops. This agglomerative effect makes zones with many retailers more attractive. The spatial distribution of retailers…

While the benefits of common and public goods are shared, they tend to be scarce when contributions are provided voluntarily. Failure to cooperate in the provision or preservation of these goods is fundamental to sustainability challenges,…

Rare earth elements (REEs) are critical to a wide range of clean and high-tech applications, yet global trade dependencies expose countries to vulnerabilities across production networks. Here, we construct a multi-tiered input-output trade…

Disasters often impact supply chains, leading to cascading effects across regions. While unaffected regions may attempt to compensate, their ability is constrained by their available production capacity and logistical constraints between…

This paper derives a closed-form expression linking aggregate markups on imported inputs to concentration in a model of firm-to-firm trade with two-sided market power. Our theory extends standard oligopoly insights in two dimensions. First,…

This paper develops a new generation of the Keynesian Intertemporal Synthesis (KIS) Model, a macroeconomic framework designed to reconcile the empirical strengths of the Post-Keynesian (PK) and New Keynesian (NK) traditions. The central…